大宗商品价格波动对中国经济的影响

发布时间：2018-01-24 18:01

本文关键词： 大宗商品 VAR模型 CRB指数　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经过几十年的高速发展,中国已经在全球经济、政治和安全领域扮演着显赫的角色,成为世界第二大经济体。然而对外开放程度越来越高,工业化、城市化发展的要求进一步升级,中国作为一个严重资源依赖的国家,本身的资源存量无法支持巨大且高速增长的需求,造成我国在能源、原材料等大宗商品方面的国际需求不断提高。尽管2013年中国整体经济增长放缓,但大宗商品进口量仍加速增长。原油、大豆、铁矿石和铜的进口量均达到历史最高水平。其中进口原油2.8亿吨,同比增长4%,大豆进口量为6338万吨,同比增加8.6%。近些年来,由于2008年金融危机的余温效应,国际环境仍旧在不断变化,如美国持续推行量化宽松货币政策,2011年澳大利亚极端天气影响世界粮食及其他大宗商品市场,中东紧张的政治局势、中国因素等都导致大宗商品的价格呈向上趋势波动。就中国而言,进口总量的加大、价格的剧烈波动究竟是否对经济产生影响,是正效应还负效应,作用的机制是怎样的,影响程度到底有多大,还是很值得分析的问题。本文以石油和大豆为国际大宗商品的代表,通过基本的现实状况分析和相应的价格传导分析之后,用具体的数据建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,并通过脉冲响应图来分析国际大宗商品价格变动对我国的居民消费水平、货币供应量、工业增加值增长率和进出口额增长的影响及其影响程度的差别。实证分析的结果说明：国际大宗商品价格波动对这些经济指标都是有影响的,相对而言,对货币供应量的影响不是十分显著。个体的实证分析中可以得出,国际大豆价格对CPI的时间持续的更长,影响更大。而国际原油价格对工业增加值增长率和进出口额增长都是先出现一个正响应后呈现负响应,然后影响慢慢消失。最后根据分析结论针对大宗商品价格波动提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:After decades of rapid development, China has been in the global economic, political and security fields play a prominent role, has become the second largest economy in the world. However, the opening degree is more and more high, industrialization, further upgrading the city development requirements, rely on China as a serious resources, the resources can not support itself the huge and rapidly growing demand, resulting in China's energy, raw materials and other commodities in the international demand continues to increase. Although the 2013 Chinese overall slowdown in economic growth, but the amount of commodity imports is still accelerating growth. Imports of crude oil, soybeans, iron ore and copper reached the highest level in history. The crude oil imports 2.8 million tons, an increase of 4%, soybean imports 63 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 8.6%.
In recent years, due to over temperature effect of the 2008 financial crisis, the international environment continues to change, such as the United States continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, the 2011 Australian extreme weather world food and other commodity markets, the Middle East political tensions in the country, and other factors have led to commodity price fluctuating upward trend. China, increase of total imports, price volatility is whether the impact on the economy, is also positive effect negative effect, the mechanism is how, how much, also is very worthy of analysis.
In this paper, oil and soybean as the representative of the international commodity, then through the analysis of the basic situation and the corresponding price, a vector autoregression with specific data (VAR) model, and through the pulse analysis of international commodity price changes on China's consumption level response, money supply, industry effect of growth rate and increase the value of import and export volume growth and influence degree of difference. The results of the empirical analysis shows that the international commodity price fluctuations on the economic indicators are, relatively speaking, the impact on money supply is not very significant. The empirical analysis of the individual can be drawn, the international soybean prices of CPI of longer duration, greater impact. While the international crude oil prices of industrial added value growth rate and the amount of import and export growth are the first to appear a positive response after the negative response, however The post effect slowly disappears. Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for the fluctuation of commodity price.

【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F726;F124

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