金融支持、经济结构调整与中等收入陷阱规避

发布时间：2018-01-24 19:27

本文关键词： 中等收入陷阱经济结构调整金融支持　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中等收入陷阱是中国在经济发展中必须正视的一个问题。国内外对中等收入陷阱问题的研究普遍从经济增长机制的角度进行分析,认为一国原有的增长模式无法满足该国在中等收入阶段经济增长的需要是导致中等收入陷阱的根本原因,而跨越中等收入陷阱的关键就在于产业结构升级和经济增长驱动力的协调发展。规避中等收入陷阱,实现经济的长期稳定增长,最终进入高收入国家行列离不开一国的经济结构调整,具体的两大方向是对产业结构进行升级和对投资消费结构进行调整以实现经济增长三大驱动力的协调发展。而一国的金融体系在这一过程中发挥着重要作用,被公认为陷入中等收入陷阱的南美与东南亚国家的教训表明：金融体系对实体经济的金融支持失效一方面会阻碍经济结构调整,一方面会加剧整个经济的风险,甚至爆发危机,使该国经济雪上加霜。当前中国经济同样面临着产业结构和投资消费结构失衡的问题。本文通过理论和实证表明,在产业结构升级方面,中国金融系统传统的银行主导型间接融资方式其本身的信贷行业偏好已经使之不能适应跨越中等收入陷阱阶段产业升级的需要,甚至对产业升级和经济增长起到了负面作用,因此需要提高通过资本市场进行融资的直接融资方式在社会融资规模中所占的比例,以此来满足新兴产业的融资需求；在调整投资消费结构失衡这一老大难问题面前,中国金融系统则不应当盲目的将金融资源在投资消费两部门间进行再分配,因为这一举措在长期对于经济增长的影响具有不确定性,在短期甚至会起到负面作用,而是应当在保持金融资源分配稳定的前提下,着重支持两部门中的高投资收益行业,进而从总体上提高两部门的增长率,使整个经济保持在相对稳定的增长状态。基于上述判断,在进一步的金融政策实践中,一方面应当通过构建完善的多层次资本市场体系引导加强资本市场直接融资在产业结构升级中发挥的作用,另一方面,在避免盲目从生产方调配消费投资两部门金融资源的基础上,可尝试从需求端入手通过消费信贷相关政策逐步增加消费,改善投资消费结构失衡的问题。
[Abstract]:Middle-income trap is a problem that China must face in the course of economic development. The research on middle-income trap at home and abroad is generally analyzed from the angle of economic growth mechanism. It is believed that the original growth model of a country can not meet the needs of economic growth in the middle-income stage, which is the fundamental cause of the middle-income trap. The key to cross the middle-income trap lies in the coordinated development of industrial structure upgrading and economic growth driving force. To avoid the middle-income trap, to achieve long-term stable economic growth, and finally to enter the ranks of high-income countries can not be separated from the economic restructuring of one country. The two specific directions are upgrading the industrial structure and adjusting the structure of investment and consumption in order to achieve the coordinated development of the three driving forces of economic growth, and the financial system of a country plays an important role in this process. The lessons of South America and South-East Asia, which have been recognized as being trapped in the middle-income trap, suggest that the failure of financial support to the real economy in the financial system can, on the one hand, impede economic structural adjustment and, on the other, exacerbate the risks to the economy as a whole. The current Chinese economy is also facing the problem of imbalance between industrial structure and investment and consumption structure. This paper shows that the upgrading of industrial structure is in the aspect of industrial structure upgrading through theoretical and empirical analysis. The traditional bank-led indirect financing mode in China's financial system has been unable to adapt to the needs of industrial upgrading in the period of middle income trap because of its own credit industry preference. It has even played a negative role in industrial upgrading and economic growth, so it is necessary to increase the proportion of direct financing through the capital market in the scale of social financing. To meet the financing needs of emerging industries; In the face of the long-standing problem of adjusting the imbalance of investment and consumption structure, China's financial system should not blindly redistribute financial resources between the two sectors of investment and consumption. Because the long-term impact of this measure on economic growth is uncertain, even in the short term will play a negative role, but should be in the premise of maintaining a stable distribution of financial resources. Emphasis is placed on supporting the high investment return industries in the two sectors, thus increasing the growth rate of the two sectors as a whole and keeping the whole economy in a relatively stable state of growth. Based on the above judgment, in the further financial policy practice, on the one hand, we should build a perfect multi-level capital market system to guide and strengthen the role of direct capital market financing in the upgrading of industrial structure. On the other hand, on the basis of avoiding blindly allocating the financial resources of the two sectors from the production side, we can try to increase consumption step by step from the demand side through the consumption credit related policies. The problem of improving the imbalance of investment and consumption structure.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F121.3

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