技术进步对我国就业总量和就业结构影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-27 17:34

本文关键词： 技术进步就业量就业结构　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：就业是民生之本,是实现社会和谐稳定的关键。科学技术是第一生产力,技术进步极大的提高了劳动生产率,加快了经济发展的步伐。党的十八大报告中明确提出二者的重要意义：科技与创新是国力的强力支撑,坚持走中国特色的自主创新道路,建设创新型国家,将科技成果更广泛更快速的应用到现实生产力中；推动实现更高质量的就业,实施就业优先战略和更加积极的就业政策。但是理论界对于技术进步能否带来就业人数的增加尚存在一定分歧。因此,研究技术进步对我国就业的影响具有深远的现实、社会和理论意义。文章以技术进步影响就业理论为基础,分别从就业量和就业结构两个视角进行机制效应分析和实证分析。在对技术进步影响我国就业量的机制效应分析主要存在对就业的破坏和补偿两种效应；在对就业结构视角的机制分析中主要从产业结构效应和劳动者素质结构效应两个方面分析。其次在对就业总量的实证分析中,采用了人均产值和单位产值能耗二者取算术平均值整理得出技术进步这一指标,并且与就业人数指标共同建立计量模型,得出了现阶段技术进步对我国就业量是正向的促进作用的结论；在对就业结构中产业结构视角的实证分析中,根据改革开放以来的相关数据,以技术进步指标、各产业就业人数为变量实证分析得出结论：技术进步与第一、二产业并不存在长期协整关系,仅对第三产业就业人数产生正向影响；在对就业结构中劳动者素质结构的实证分析中则采用了从业人员受教育年限和技术进步指标为变量建立计量模型得出了技术进步会促使劳动者提高自身素质的结论。最后,文章结合理论与实证、定性与定量分析,根据实证结果为推动并实现高质量就业提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and the key to realize social harmony and stability. Science and technology is the first productive force, and technological progress has greatly improved labor productivity. The report of the 18 National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out the significance of the two: science, technology and innovation are the strong support of national strength, adhere to the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics, and build an innovative country. Apply scientific and technological achievements more widely and quickly to the real productivity; Promote the realization of higher quality employment, the implementation of employment priority strategy and more active employment policy. It has profound realistic, social and theoretical significance to study the influence of technological progress on employment in China. From the perspective of employment volume and employment structure, the mechanism effect analysis and empirical analysis are carried out. In the mechanism effect analysis of technological progress affecting employment volume in China, there are two kinds of effects of destruction and compensation to employment. In the mechanism analysis of the employment structure perspective, mainly from the industrial structure effect and the quality structure effect of workers, then in the empirical analysis of the total amount of employment. Using the per capita output value and energy consumption per unit output value to get the index of technological progress according to the arithmetic average value, and set up the econometric model together with the employment number index. The conclusion is that technological progress is a positive promotion to the employment of our country at the present stage. In the empirical analysis of the industrial structure in the employment structure, according to the relevant data since the reform and opening up, with the index of technological progress, the number of industrial employment as a variable empirical analysis draws a conclusion: technological progress and first. The second industry does not have the long-term cointegration relation, only has the positive influence to the tertiary industry employment number; In the empirical analysis of the quality structure of workers in the structure of employment, we use the number of years of education and the index of technological progress as variables to set up a measurement model, and draw the conclusion that technological progress will promote the workers to improve their own quality. On. Finally. Combined with theory and practice, qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for promoting and realizing high quality employment according to the empirical results.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.3;F249.2

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