基于能值的产业生态系统可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 01:25

  本文关键词： 产业生态系统 演化机制 能值分析 系统动力学 仿真模拟　出处：《天津理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新世纪以来，改变经济增长模式，提高环境质量已成为我国经济发展战略的重要组成部分。十八大报告更是把生态文明建设放在突出地位，强调“要将生态文明建设融入经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设各方面和全过程，走一条科技含量高、经济效益好、资源消费低、环境污染少、人力资源得到发挥的新型工业化路子”，实现社会经济的全面、高效、健康发展。产业生态系统作为可持续发展的重要实践形式，其发展、演化一直是人们关注的焦点。但是，随着产业生态系统的不断发展，由其结构、技术以及外部环境等因素带来的诸多问题逐渐显露，对系统的可持续演进造成了一定的负面影响。因此，深入研究产业生态系统演进过程中各组分的作用关系，定量的评价演进的可持续性，确定系统可持续发展的关键影响因子，并通过模拟其未来的演进情况，探寻系统的可持续发展模式，对于推动我国区域产业系统、生活系统以及环境系统的协调发展具有重要意义。 本文以产业生态系统为研究对象，引入产业生态理论、能值分析方法以及系统动力学建模方法，对产业生态系统演进过程进行定量的评价与动态的模拟，通过不同经济发展模式的设置，探讨适合产业生态系统演进的经济发展模式，并以天津滨海新区产业生态系统为例进行实证分析，以验证模型与方法的有效性。主要内容如下： （1）对国内外相关研究成果进行综述，系统的回顾国内外学者对产业生态系统的发展演进研究中存在的问题、能值分析方法以及系统动力学方法在经济、社会领域研究的应用，并结合我国产业生态系统发展实际，阐述产业生态系统的内涵与特征，为系统的评价与仿真模拟做铺垫； （2）应用能值分析理论评价系统演进的可持续性。从系统论角度出发，将产业生态系统划分为若干子系统，并建立相应的能值评价指标体系，定量的分析系统演进中的经济、社会以及环境效益，，评价系统的可持续发展水平； （3）利用系统动力学建模方法，探讨系统运行机理及各子系统间的作用关系，构建包含能值评价体系的产业生态系统演进模型，从动态角度评价系统发展的可持续性问题； （4）以天津滨海新区产业生态系统为例，对系统的发展现状进行能值分析，并构建系统的演进模型，通过定量的仿真与模拟，分析不同经济发展模式下系统的综合效益以及可持续性问题，并对结果进行深入剖析，同时验证模型在产业生态系统演化问题研究中的有效性。 本文的研究以期能为天津滨海新区产业生态系统未来产业结构转型、资源利用优化及区域可持续发展提供理论依据与决策参考。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, changing the pattern of economic growth and improving the quality of environment has become an important part of our country's economic development strategy. The 18 report puts the construction of ecological civilization in a prominent position. It is necessary to integrate the construction of ecological civilization into economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, and social construction in all aspects and the whole process, and take a high scientific and technological content, good economic benefits, low consumption of resources, and less environmental pollution. The new way of industrialization of human resources is to realize the comprehensive, efficient and healthy development of social economy. As an important practical form of sustainable development, the industrial ecosystem develops. Evolution has always been the focus of attention. However, with the continuous development of industrial ecosystem, many problems caused by its structure, technology and external environment are gradually revealed. It has a negative impact on the sustainable evolution of the system. Therefore, the role of components in the evolution of industrial ecosystem is deeply studied, and the sustainability of evolution is evaluated quantitatively. Determine the system sustainable development of the key factors, and by simulating its future evolution, explore the system of sustainable development model, to promote China's regional industrial system. The coordinated development of living system and environment system is of great significance. This paper takes the industrial ecosystem as the research object, introduces the industrial ecology theory, the emergy analysis method and the system dynamics modeling method, carries on the quantitative evaluation and the dynamic simulation to the industrial ecosystem evolution process. Through the establishment of different economic development models, this paper discusses the economic development model suitable for the evolution of industrial ecosystem, and takes the industrial ecosystem of Tianjin Binhai New area as an example to carry on the empirical analysis. To verify the validity of the model and method. The main contents are as follows: 1) summarize the related research results at home and abroad, systematically review the problems existing in the research on the development and evolution of industrial ecosystem, the method of energy analysis and the method of system dynamics in the economy. The application of social research and the development of industrial ecosystem in China, the connotation and characteristics of the industrial ecosystem are expounded, which pave the way for the evaluation and simulation of the system. 2) applying emergy analysis theory to evaluate the sustainability of the evolution of the system. From the point of view of system theory, the industrial ecosystem is divided into several subsystems, and the corresponding emergy evaluation index system is established. Quantitative analysis of the economic, social and environmental benefits in the evolution of the system, and evaluation of the sustainable development level of the system; 3) using the modeling method of system dynamics, the mechanism of system operation and the relationship between subsystems are discussed, and the evolution model of industrial ecosystem including emergy evaluation system is constructed. Evaluating the sustainability of system development from a dynamic perspective; Taking the industrial ecosystem of Tianjin Binhai New area as an example, the development status of the system is analyzed by emergy analysis, and the evolution model of the system is constructed, and the quantitative simulation and simulation are carried out. The comprehensive benefit and sustainability of the system under different economic development models are analyzed, and the results are deeply analyzed, and the validity of the model in the study of the evolution of industrial ecosystem is verified at the same time. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis and decision reference for the future industrial structure transformation, resource utilization optimization and regional sustainable development of industrial ecosystem in Tianjin Binhai New area.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F127

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