安徽省电力消费与经济增长关系及用电需求短期预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 10:21

本文关键词： 经济增长电力消费协整检验灰色预测时间趋势外推　出处：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：安徽省正处于经济转型升级的关键时期,为了实现电力工业与经济的协调发展,应全面了解和掌握安徽省电力消费和经济增长之间的关系。同时,为了保证电力的发展适应社会发展的要求,需要把握电力消费变化的规律,合理的对电力需求进行预测,这样不仅可以指导电力规划和电力建设,实现资源的合理规划与配置,还能为将来的经济和电力政策提供参考。本文首先描述了安徽省自1990年以来的经济发展水平和全社会用电量状况,以及自1978年改革开放以来的产业结构变化趋势,并从绝对量指标和相对量指标方面分析了安徽省的电力消费和经济增长之间的关系。绝对量指标上,安徽省地区生产总值和安徽省全社会用电量两者有相同的变化趋势;相对量指标上,单位GDP电耗和各产业占比之间存在相关性。其次,使用安徽省经济数据和电力数据,运用计量方法,对安徽省电力消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了比较全面的研究。主要探究了以下问题:安徽省全社会用电量和实际地区生产总值之间的关系;安徽省全社会用电量和经济增长其他主要评价指标之间的关系;使用H-P滤波法分解全社会用电量和实际GDP的趋势成分和波动成分。在计量模型分析之前,运用Pearson相关系数分析方法和自相关性检验对安徽省全社会用电量和地区生产总值之间以及各产业用电量和各产业增加值之间的关系进行基本统计分析。由于用电量序列和GDP序列均存在序列自相关性,为此,选用协整理论进行讨论,并建立全社会用电量和地区生产总值以及分产业用电量和其对应产业增加值的误差修正模型。协整理论分析表明安徽省电力消费和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,在系统分析安徽省总体经济发展和全社会用电量的因果关系研究上,格兰杰因果分析结果显示,安徽地区存在从全社会用电量到地区生产总值的单向格兰杰因果关系。根据分产业用电量与各产业对应增加值的关系研究,协整理论表明第二产业用电量和第二产业增加值、第三产业用电量和第三产业增加值存在长期稳定的均衡关系,格兰杰因果检验分析结果显示分别存在从第二产业增加值到第二产业用电量、第三产业用电量到第三产业增加值的单向格兰杰因果关系。最后,进行安徽省电力消费短期预测研究。根据用电量预测分析的时间性、不确定性、复杂性的特征,在用电量短期预测研究基础上,用灰色预测和时间趋势外推法纵向分析用电量数据,建立年度模型进行分析。研究发现,获得的样本数据区间越长,用时间趋势外推法拟合的精度越高,并且,基于各产业用电量序列特点的差异性,将全社会用电量分为产业用电量和居民用电量两大类,产业用电量即—产用电量、二产用电量和三产用电量,分别对四部分用电量进行预测的精度更高。
[Abstract]:Anhui Province is in the critical period of economic transformation and upgrading. In order to realize the coordinated development of electric power industry and economy, we should fully understand and master the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province. In order to ensure the development of electricity to meet the needs of social development, it is necessary to grasp the law of electricity consumption change, reasonable forecast of electricity demand, which can not only guide the power planning and power construction. The realization of rational planning and allocation of resources can also provide a reference for future economic and power policies. Firstly, this paper describes the level of economic development and the situation of electricity consumption of the whole society in Anhui Province since 1990. And since 1978 since the reform and opening up since the industrial structure change trend, and from the absolute quantity index and the relative quantity index aspect has analyzed the Anhui Province electricity consumption and the economic growth relations. In the absolute quantity index. The GDP of Anhui Province and the electricity consumption of the whole society in Anhui Province have the same changing trend; Relative volume indicators, the unit GDP power consumption and the proportion of industries there is a correlation. Secondly, the use of Anhui Province economic data and electricity data, the use of measurement methods. The relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province has been studied comprehensively. The following problems have been explored: the relationship between the electricity consumption of the whole society and the gross domestic product of Anhui Province; The relationship between electricity consumption and other main evaluation indicators of economic growth in Anhui Province; H-P filter is used to decompose the trend and fluctuation components of the whole society's electricity consumption and actual GDP. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis method and the autocorrelation test, the basic statistical points of the relationship between the total social electricity consumption and the regional gross domestic product of Anhui Province, and between the electricity consumption of each industry and the added value of each industry are carried out. Because of the sequence autocorrelation between electricity consumption sequence and GDP sequence. For this reason, the cointegration theory is chosen to discuss. An error correction model of the whole society's electricity consumption and regional GDP, as well as the electricity consumption by industry and its corresponding industrial added value is established. The cointegration theory analysis shows that there is a long-term stable relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province. Equilibrium. Granger causality analysis results show that the causal relationship between the overall economic development of Anhui Province and the electricity consumption of the whole society is analyzed systematically. There is a one-way Granger causality from the whole social electricity consumption to the regional GDP in Anhui Province. The relationship between electricity consumption by industry and the corresponding added value of each industry is studied. The co-finishing theory shows that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the electricity consumption of the second industry and the added value of the second industry, the electricity consumption of the third industry and the added value of the third industry. Granger causality test results show that there is a one-way Granger causality from the added value of the second industry to the electricity consumption of the second industry, the electricity consumption of the third industry to the added value of the third industry. According to the characteristics of time, uncertainty and complexity of electricity consumption prediction analysis, based on the short-term forecasting of electricity consumption research. Using grey prediction and time trend extrapolation method to analyze electricity consumption data longitudinally, establish an annual model for analysis. The study found that the longer the sample data interval, the higher the precision of fitting with time trend extrapolation method. Based on the difference of power consumption sequence, the whole society is divided into industrial electricity consumption and residential electricity consumption, industrial electricity consumption, that is, production electricity consumption, second production electricity consumption and three production electricity consumption. The accuracy of forecasting the four parts of electricity consumption is higher.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F127

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