中国经济周期的波动特征:典型事实与国际比较

发布时间：2018-01-29 12:34

本文关键词： 中国经济周期经济波动典型事实可贸易和不可贸易部门　出处：《财贸研究》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于全新的中国季度宏观数据集,利用时域相关分析和频域互谱分析方法对1992年以来中国经济波动的典型事实进行全面归纳,之后运用G7国家的数据横向比较中国经济波动特征与主要发达经济体的异同,并深入分析其差异的成因,最后提出理解中国经济波动的模型框架以及对近年来中国经济增速下行成因的启示。研究发现:中国经济周期波动的粘持性与发达经济体相似,但波动性显著偏高,而各变量同GDP波动的相关性则显著偏低;相对于G7国家,中国的投资、资本、劳动、政府消费、净出口及货币等变量的波动别具一格;可贸易和不可贸易部门框架可以较好地解释近年来中国经济增速的持续下行。
[Abstract]:Based on the new quarterly macro data set of China, this paper summarizes the typical facts of China's economic fluctuation since 1992 by using time-domain correlation analysis and frequency-domain cross-spectral analysis. Then we use the data of G7 countries to compare the characteristics of China's economic fluctuations with those of the major developed economies, and analyze the causes of the differences. Finally, the paper puts forward the model framework of understanding China's economic fluctuation and its inspiration to the cause of China's economic growth decline in recent years. The study finds that the consistency of China's economic cycle fluctuations is similar to that of developed economies. However, the volatility was significantly higher, and the correlation between the variables and GDP volatility was significantly lower. Compared with the G7 countries, China's investment, capital, labor, government consumption, net exports and currency fluctuations are unique; The tradable and non-tradable sector framework is a good explanation for the continued downward trend in China's economic growth in recent years.
【作者单位】：厦门大学宏观经济研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“矫正要素比价扭曲,推进经济发展方式转变问题研究”(13JJD790026) 教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国经济潜在增速的测算与展望研究”(15JZD016)
【分类号】：F124.8
【正文快照】： 一、引言和文献综述经济周期理论的发展,离不开经济周期实证研究新成果的持续涌现。经济周期波动特征的经验研究,是理解中国宏观经济波动机制和判断西方理论是否适用于中国的关键。近年来,中国经济增速持续下行,生产者价格指数多年负增长,由此引发学界关于其成因的广泛讨论

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