长江经济带碳排放驱动因素及其空间特征——基于LMDI模型

发布时间：2018-02-01 12:27

本文关键词： 能源消费 CO排放排放因素分解 LMDI模型　出处：《财经科学》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文运用LMDI模型将1995—2014年长江经济带能源消费CO2排放增量的驱动因素分解为经济规模、产业结构、能源强度和能源结构"四大效应"。结果表明,经济规模、产业结构变化对CO2排放表现为正效应,能源强度、能源结构对CO2排放则表现为负效应,各效应对CO2排放的累积贡献率绝对值由大到小依次是:经济规模效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应和能源结构效应;长江经济带上、中、下游三大地区的碳排放因素存在较为明显的空间差异,下游经济规模扩张对CO2排放的增长影响最为明显,产业结构变化对中上游CO2排放的正效应较为明显,能源强度对减少CO2排放的作用从大到小依次为中游、下游、上游。据此,本文从创新驱动、产业转型升级、发展可再生能源及提高能源管理效率等方面提出具体的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, LMDI model is used to decompose the driving factors of energy consumption CO2 emission increment in the Yangtze economic belt from 1995 to 2014 into economic scale and industrial structure. The results show that the economic scale and industrial structure change have positive effects on CO2 emissions, while energy intensity and energy structure have negative effects on CO2 emissions. The absolute value of cumulative contribution rate of each effect to CO2 emission is: economic scale effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect and energy structure effect; There are obvious spatial differences in carbon emission factors in the three major regions of the Yangtze River economic belt. The expansion of downstream economic scale has the most obvious impact on the growth of CO2 emissions. The positive effect of industrial structure change on CO2 emission in the upper and middle reaches is obvious. The effect of energy intensity on reducing CO2 emissions is in order of middle, downstream and upstream from large to small. Accordingly, this paper is driven by innovation. Specific countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for industrial transformation and upgrading, development of renewable energy and improvement of energy management efficiency.
【作者单位】：四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目《资源环境约束下西部产业结构调整优化研究》(12BJL088) 四川省地理国情与资源环境承载力监测工程技术研究中心资助项目(GC201501)
【分类号】：F127;X22
【正文快照】： 长江经济带发展战略已正式上升为国家战略。《长江经济带发展规划纲要》强调指出,推动长江经济带发展必须坚持“生态优先、绿色发展”的战略定位,在保护生态的条件下推进发展,实现经济发展与资源环境相适应,走出一条绿色低碳循环发展的道路。节能降碳既是坚持绿色低碳发展道

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