人民币汇率对国际收支影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-03 17:55

本文关键词： 修正的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型 VEC模型脉冲响应方差分解模拟与预测　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国改革开放以来,经济以惊人的速度增长,我国与他国的经济交流也更加紧密。根据商务部的数据统计,中国的进出口总额从1982年的480亿美元增长到2013年的4.16万亿美元,跃居进出口贸易总额世界第一,可谓是突飞猛进的态势增长,并且总的趋势仍在不断增加。截止到2013年年末,中国的国际储备稳坐世界第一,高达3.82万亿美元。我国2013年资本与与金融项目顺差3262亿美元,相对改革开放前的逆差情况取得突飞猛进的进展。但是在长期巨大的双顺差积累下,中国的问题也逐渐显现,国际收支的长期不平衡给我国带来了相应的问题文章首先简要叙述影响人民币汇率的因素,主要列举了推动人民币持续升值的主要因素以及每个因素对人民币汇率的传导机制；然后基于我国1997年-2013年的国际收支平衡表,对各个项目进行特征分析,为之后建立模型所用的数据选取做了深刻的铺垫；之后文章采用理论研究和实证分析相结合的方法,基于修正后的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,选取1999年第1季度至2013年第4季度的季度数据为样本,运用经济学中的计量方法,对样本数据进行单位根检验、协整检验、VEC模型的分析和预测,并通过模型结果得出实证结果并对其加以分析；最后文章对全文进行全面总结,针对得出的实证结论提出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up, the economy has been growing at an alarming rate, and the economic exchanges between China and other countries have become closer. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce. China's total import and export volume increased from US $48 billion in 1982 to US $4.16 tillion in 2013, ranking first in the world in terms of total import and export trade. And the general trend is still increasing. By the end of 2013, China's international reserves remained at number one in the world. In 2013, China had a surplus of 326.2 billion US dollars in capital and financial items. Relative to the deficit before the reform and opening up has made rapid progress, but in the long-term accumulation of huge double-surplus, China's problems are also gradually emerging. The long-term imbalance of the international balance of payments has brought the corresponding problems to our country. Firstly, the paper briefly describes the factors that affect the RMB exchange rate. It mainly lists the main factors that promote the continuous appreciation of RMB and the transmission mechanism of each factor to RMB exchange rate. Then, based on the balance of payments statement from 1997 to 2013, the characteristics of each item are analyzed, which makes a profound foundation for the selection of the data used in the later establishment of the model. Then the paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research and empirical analysis, based on the modified Mondal-Fleming model, selects the quarterly data from in the first quarter of 1999 to in the fourth quarter of 2013 as the sample. Using the econometric method in economics, the unit root test of sample data and the analysis and prediction of VEC model by cointegration test are carried out, and the empirical results are obtained through the model results and analyzed. Finally, the article summarizes the full text, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in view of the empirical conclusions.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F113.8

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