基于TFP视角下中国经济可持续性增长研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 22:14

本文关键词： 经济增长的可持续性 TFP 贡献率中韩比较　出处：《青岛大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济已经高速增长了三十多年,按照世界银行的划分标准,我国已于2011年迈入中上等收入国家的行列。根据经济增长的历史经验,经济体进入这一阶段后往往伴随着经济增速放缓、人均收入增长乏力的情况,并面临着严峻的产业升级的压力。中国经济能否在这一关键时期提高全要素生产率的增长率,是成功跨越中等收入陷阱并最终步入高收入国家的重中之重。本研究首先对中国经济各领域的全要素生产率相关研究进行了评述。其次,采用非参数DEA-Malmquist指数方法对1978年至2011年期间中国29个省、市、自治区的TFP指数进行求解,并根据实证结果从总体、区域、省份的角度综合分析过去十多年经济增长的特征。更为重要的是,通过对比中韩两国在人均GDP相似阶段的TFP增长率对经济增长率的贡献率,明确我国所处的历史发展阶段。鉴于中国的特殊国情,如果总体贡献率趋势与韩国存在较大差异,那么少数几个经济最发达的省市是否出现了贡献率上升的迹象,也是本文所关注的。研究结果表明,东部地区优先分享了改革开放政策带来的好处,通过大量吸引外资和技术,实现了率先发展,在2008年之前一直引领中国经济的高速增长,但由于知识流量在向国外前沿技术靠近的过程中逐渐枯竭,东部大多数省份越来越感受到产业转型升级的压力,增长乏力；中西部地区在进入21世纪后,尤其是2008年金融危机后,开始承接东部地区转移的产业,事实上开户了在中国不同区域之间的广业雁阵转移,在未来一段时期仍旧有着可持续增长的潜力；东部其它省份能不能像韩国看齐,甚至向北京和上海看齐,提高全要素生产率,是决定未来中国经济增长可持续性的关键。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for more than 30 years. According to the World Bank's classification standards, China has entered the ranks of the upper and middle income countries in 2011. According to the historical experience of economic growth. When the economy enters this stage, it is often accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth and weak growth in per capita income. Whether the Chinese economy can increase the growth rate of total factor productivity in this critical period is the top priority of successfully crossing the middle-income trap and finally stepping into the high-income countries. This study first reviews the relevant studies on total factor productivity in various fields of China's economy. Secondly, it reviews the related researches on the total factor productivity in various fields of the Chinese economy. The nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index method is used to solve the TFP index of 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 1978 to 2011. The regional and provincial perspective comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of economic growth in the past decade. More importantly, by comparing the contribution of TFP growth rate to economic growth rate in the similar stage of GDP per capita between China and South Korea. In view of the special situation of China, if the trend of overall contribution rate is quite different from that of South Korea. So whether a few of the most developed provinces and cities show signs of increasing contribution rate is also the concern of this paper. The results show that the eastern region has given priority to share the benefits of the reform and opening up policy, through attracting a large number of foreign investment and technology, achieved the first development. Until 2008, it had led the rapid growth of China's economy, but as the flow of knowledge dried up as it approached frontier technologies abroad. Most of the eastern provinces feel the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading more and more, the growth is weak; After entering 21th century, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the central and western regions began to undertake the transfer of industries in the eastern region. There is still potential for sustainable growth for some time to come; Whether other eastern provinces can match South Korea, or even Beijing and Shanghai, and increase total factor productivity are key to determining the sustainability of China's future economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F124.5

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