长波中技术变革、范式转换与中国供给侧结构性改革

发布时间：2018-02-09 17:04

本文关键词： 技术变革范式转换新兴产业增长动能转换供给侧结构性改革　出处：《经济学家》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：供给侧结构性改革是中国经济治理理念的重大调整,西方经济学中的供给侧管理并不能全面回答供给侧结构性改革。通过引入技术变革、范式转换等长周期分析范式,本文认为:长波中的经济萧条能够孕育技术变革、技术变革又能催生新兴产业,这是经济系统的全新供给;进而通过范式转化,新兴产业将取代传统产业并引致供给结构的颠覆性变化,这是经济增长的全新动能。在这个过程中,经济增长动能转换的关键在于新兴产业对传统产业的替代及其供给结构的颠覆性变化,但这需要形成一整套与技术变革、新兴产业发展相适应的"最优实践模式"。置身于全球新一轮技术变革(工业革命)与中国经济增长的传统动能逐步衰退等背景下,推进供给侧结构性改革就需要围绕供给结构的颠覆性变化与经济增长的动能转换,正确处理改革与经济增长的辩证关系,短期之内全面落实"三去一降一补",中长期之内基于技术变革与新兴产业发展在政治、制度、组织等方面引入广泛的"创造性毁灭"。
[Abstract]:The supply-side structural reform is a major adjustment of China's economic governance concept. The supply-side management in western economics can not fully answer the supply-side structural reform. This paper holds that the economic depression in the long wave can give birth to technological change, which in turn can give birth to new industries, which is a new supply of economic system. Emerging industries will replace traditional industries and lead to subversive changes in the supply structure, which is a new momentum of economic growth. In the process, The key to the transformation of the kinetic energy of economic growth lies in the replacement of traditional industries and the subversive changes in the supply structure of the new industries, but this requires a whole set of technological changes. The "best practice mode" suitable for the development of new industries. Under the background of a new round of global technological change (industrial revolution) and the gradual decline of the traditional kinetic energy of China's economic growth, To promote supply-side structural reform, it is necessary to correctly handle the dialectical relationship between reform and economic growth around the subversive changes of supply structure and the transformation of economic growth kinetic energy. In the short term, "three go, one go, one decline and one supplement" will be fully implemented, and in the medium and long term, based on technological change and the development of new industries, extensive "creative destruction" will be introduced in politics, system, organization, and so on.
【作者单位】：云南大学发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目“我国农业转移人口市民化的社会成本及其分摊机制研究”(14BJY038) 云南大学“青年英才培育计划” 云南省中青年学术技术带头后备人才资助
【分类号】：F124

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