我国人口老龄化对城乡居民消费的影响

发布时间：2018-02-10 11:03

本文关键词： 老龄化城乡居民消费　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,我国经济就进入高速增长期,在高速的GDP增长率拉动下,GDP总量不断增加。然而,不同于我国GDP总量的增长,我国的消费一直处于一个较低的水平。国内消费严重不足,国民消费水平增速也十分缓慢。2015年,我国城镇人均消费支出只有27210元,农村人均消费支出也只有9679元,增长率也分别只为7.0%、11.1%。最终消费率为51.6%,刚达到GDP的一半。消费不足这一问题已经成为制约我国经济持续高速增长的一个重要因素。此外,虽然劳动力的增长给我国的经济带来了极大的"人口红利"。但随着出生率的降低以及人口的衰老,"人口红利"不再,我国的养老负担已经成为制约经济高速发展的障碍。根据联合国对老龄化的界定,我国早已进入了老龄化社会,并且老龄化程度不断加深。消费不足问题以及老龄化问题已经成为我国经济持续增长的大问题。所以本文试着从我国人口老龄化的角度来分别探讨城乡居民消费问题,以期能对我国的政策制定做出相应的指导,以提升我国的消费水平。本文在大量文献研究的基础上,通过采用2001-2014年省级面板数据,在分析了老龄化对消费的影响机制的前提下,对人口老龄化对农村和城镇居民消费的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明,人口老龄化与农村居民消费水平有正向的相关关系。老龄化程度的加深会促进农村居民的消费水平。而人口老龄化与城镇居民消费水平有反向相关关系。老龄化程度的加深会抑制城镇居民的消费水平。基于老龄化对城乡居民消费影响的实证结果,文章给出了几点建议,以期能做出相应的政策指导,以提升我国的消费水平。第一、开拓老年市场,促进消费增长。第二、提升收入水平,转变消费习惯。第三、完善我国收入分配制度,缩小城乡收入差距。第四、改善就业环境,提供工作岗位。第五、进一步完善我国社会保障体系以及养老保险制度,降低居民的储蓄性动机。第六、改革户籍制度,加快推进城镇化进程。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has entered a period of rapid growth, and the total amount of GDP has been increasing under the influence of the high growth rate of GDP. However, it is different from the total growth of GDP in China. China's consumption has been at a relatively low level. Domestic consumption is seriously inadequate, and the level of national consumption is growing very slowly. In 2015, China's urban per capita consumption expenditure was only 27210 yuan, and rural per capita consumption expenditure was only 9,679 yuan. The final consumption rate is 51.6, which is just half of the GDP. The problem of underconsumption has become an important factor restricting the sustained and rapid economic growth of our country. Although the growth of the labor force has brought a great "demographic dividend" to our economy. But with the decline of the birth rate and the aging of the population, the "demographic dividend" is no longer there. The burden of providing for the aged has become an obstacle to the rapid development of our economy. According to the definition of aging by the United Nations, our country has already entered an aging society. And the degree of aging is deepening. The problem of insufficient consumption and the problem of aging has become a big problem of sustained economic growth in China. Therefore, this paper tries to discuss the problem of consumption of urban and rural residents from the perspective of aging population in China. In order to make the corresponding guidance to the policy formulation of our country, in order to improve the consumption level of our country. Based on a lot of literature research, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of aging on consumption by using provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014. An empirical study on the effect of population aging on rural and urban residents' consumption is carried out. There is a positive correlation between the aging of the population and the consumption level of rural residents, the deepening of the degree of aging will promote the consumption level of rural residents, while the aging of the population has a negative correlation with the level of consumption of urban residents. Based on the empirical results of the effect of aging on the consumption of urban and rural residents, This paper gives some suggestions in order to make corresponding policy guidance to improve the consumption level of our country. First, to open up the elderly market and promote consumption growth; second, to raise the income level and change the consumption habits. Improve China's income distribution system, narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas. 4th, improve the employment environment, provide jobs. 5th, further improve our social security system and pension insurance system, reduce residents' savings motivation. 6th, Reform the household registration system and speed up the urbanization process.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F126.1

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