长江三角洲城市群复杂网络结构的演化机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 01:11

本文关键词： 长三角城市群演化机制复杂网络结构网络结构效应　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在“互联网+”和全球经济一体化的双重背景下,城市群已经成为各国参与国际竞争和分工的重要空间组织形式,逐渐成长为区域经济发展的核心,并深刻影响着我国经济的发展格局和发展实力。各类经济要素如物质、资金、信息、技术和人才等在各区域之间产生迅速交流,加强了城市群内部各主体之间及其与外部区域之间的关联,对城市群的空间结构和经济社会发展在很大程度上具有推动作用,正在促使其向开放性的复杂网络化结构演变,而这种网络化结构是如何演化的、具有怎样的趋势,及其对经济发展是否具有促进作用对于当前城市群的规划和发展具有重要意义。因此,本文在对城市群空间复杂网络化研究的理论和文献进行回顾和梳理的基础上,建立了“发现并凝练机制—形成机制的空间表现—效应影响机制的检验”于一体的城市群复杂网络结构演化的理论分析框架。本文立足于长三角城市群,依托30个城市20年的基础数据,基于新经济地理学理论和复杂网络理论,通过模拟1995-2014年20年期间长三角城市群的网络演化情况,发现其演化规律和演化趋势,在此基础上探讨网络化结构对城市群经济的影响效应,进而提出优化城市群网络和促进其经济发展的建议。首先,本文从新经济地理学、城市和区域经济学相关理论的研究文献出发探寻城市群空间网络化过程中可能存在的规律,随后对近年来国内外应用复杂网络理论对城市群网络的研究文献进行全面梳理,发现当前研究虽然趋向运用复杂网络分析方法研究城市群空间网络,但是研究只限于对复杂网络结构特征的分析,缺乏对网络结构效应的考察以及其演化机制的探讨,割裂了现象之间的联系,没有形成较为完整的理论分析框架。本文认为要素的空间流动、基础设施网络的完善以及政府的推动是促进城市群网络形成的动因,而要素流是网络形成的“源动力”;在空间集聚与扩散机制和空间外部性机制的作用下,网络不断演化,逐渐复杂化、开放化;而随着网络化水平的提升,这种高关联性的结构对要素以更快速度流动进而经济的迅速发展具有显著的促进作用。基于此,本文对城市空间复杂网络的演化机制进行系统和全面地分析。其次,为了全面系统地对城市群空间演化特征展开研究,本文在前文构建的理论分析框架下将人流、物资流、信息流和资金流等要素流综合融入改进的引力模型,建立了长三角城市群内各城市之间综合经济空间关联关系矩阵,依托UCINET6模拟20年的城市群复杂网络结构形态结构,进而得到网络密度、网络关联度、网络等级度和网络效率等四个网络整体结构性指标,以及点度中心度、中间中心度和接近中心度等三个网络个体结构性指标,对网络的结构特性进行全方位刻画与描述,并通过使用块模型研究网络的凝聚特征,发现城市群网络板块特征明显。进一步地,本文以文章第三部分总结的演化机制为基础,对这些结构特性进行深入地分析和阐释。然后,本文结合理论分析以及对长三角城市群复杂网络演化特征的探索与解释,发现复杂网络的整体结构性指标与城市群的整体经济发展水平表现出较为一致的演化趋势,个体结构性指标与各城市的经济发展水平呈现出一定的分布规律,并基于前文的演化机制分析分别提出了城市群复杂网络结构的整体网络结构和个体网络结构对城市群及其内部城市的经济发展水平具有显著影响效应的两大假说。对于网络整体结构性,其结构指标构成了时间序列,需采用简单回归模型,而个体网络结构指标构成了面板数据库,需采用面板数据回归模型,依托两类数据库和两种计量回归方法,对两大假说进行了验证,依次检验网络结构效应影响机制的作用效果。实证结果表明,城市群复杂网络结构中,整体网络密度的提升以及网络等级度和网络效率的下降,是助推城市群经济发展的重要驱动力;个体网络中,点度中心度和接近中心度的提升以及中间中心度的降低对城市经济发展具有正向促进作用。最后,本文根据前文城市群复杂网络结构演化特征的研究结果和对网络结构效应假说的检验,总结通篇文章并凝练研究的主要结论,在此基础上对长三角城市群的发展现状进行分析,以期能提出几点有益的政策启示。文章最后也对整个研究的不足之处进行总结并说明了进一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:In the dual background of Internet plus "and the global economic integration, the city group has become an important form of spatial organization of countries to participate in international competition and division of labor, gradually become the core of regional economic development, and a profound impact on the development pattern and development strength of our economy. Such as material, capital, information elements of all kinds of economic and technology and talent to produce rapid exchanges in various regions, strengthen the association between city group subjects and outside the region, spatial structure and economic and social development of the city group has promoting effect to a great extent, is the evolution of complex network structure to open, and the network structure is how to evolve, what is the trend of economic development, whether can promote is of great significance for the planning and development of the city group. Therefore, in this paper Based on the research of complex network of city space theory and literature review on the establishment of the "discovery and concise mechanism - the formation mechanism of space - effect mechanism of inspection" in one of the city complex network structure evolution in the framework of theoretical analysis. This paper is based on the Yangtze River Delta city group, relying on the 30 city basic data of 20 years, the new economic geography theory and based on complex network theory, through the simulation of 1995-2014 years during the 20 years in the Yangtze River Delta city group network evolution, the evolution and evolution trend, based on the network structure of city agglomeration economy effect, then puts forward the optimized network and promote the city group the economic development of China. First of all, this article from the new economic geography, city and regional economics research literature related theory of exploring the city group space network The law may exist in the process, followed by an overall review of the research literature at home and abroad in recent years the application of complex network theory of city network, although the study found that the current trend of space network research of city group by using the complex network, but the research is only limited to the analysis of complex network structure, the lack of investigation of network structure effect the mechanism and its evolution, separates the phenomenon of contact, has not formed a complete theoretical framework. The factor flow, network infrastructure and improve the government's impetus is the motivation to promote the city group to form a network, and network element flow formed by the "source of power"; in the spatial agglomeration with the diffusion mechanism and spatial externality mechanism, network evolution, gradually complicated, open; and with the network level, the high Has a significant role in promoting the rapid development of the structure of the relevance of elements at a faster rate of flow and economy. Based on this, systematic and comprehensive analysis of the evolution mechanism of the city space of complex networks. Secondly, in order to comprehensively and systematically the city spatial evolution characteristics is studied, based on an earlier theoretical analysis framework the flow, material flow, information flow and cash flow and other factors flow is integrated into the improved gravity model, establish the relationship between the city of Yangtze River Delta city group in the comprehensive economic spatial correlation matrix, based on the UCINET6 simulation of 20 years of city group structure in complex network structure, and then obtain the network density, network relation, network grade the efficiency of the network and the four network overall structural index and degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality of three structural indicators of individual networks. The structural properties of the network for all-round depiction and description, and through the use of agglomerated feature block model of the network, find the city network plate is obvious. Furthermore, based on the evolution mechanism of the third part of the article, for the structural characteristics of deep analysis and interpretation. Then, this paper combines the theory analysis and evolution of the Yangtze River Delta city group of complex network exploration and interpretation, found that the overall structural index and city complex network group's overall level of economic development shows the evolution trend is consistent, individual structural index and the level of economic development of the city shows a certain distribution, and analyze the evolution mechanism based on the above city were put forward. Complex network structure overall network structure and individual network structure of the city group and city economic development level has Effect of two major hypotheses for the network effect. The overall structure, the structure index consists of time series, the simple regression model, and the individual network structure index consists of panel data, using panel data regression model, regression method based on two kinds of database and two kinds of measurement, the two hypothesis was proved, role in order to test the impact of effect mechanism of network structure effect. The empirical results show that the city group of the complex network structure, the whole network density and enhance the network level and decreased network efficiency, is an important driving force in economic development to boost the city; individual network, a decrease in the degree of centrality and closeness centrality. Ascension and middle center has positive effect on the economic development of the city. Finally, according to the research results above city group evolution characteristics of complex network structure and network Test the structure effect hypothesis, the paper summed up the main conclusions and concise research, based on the current situation of the development of the Yangtze River Delta city group is analyzed, in order to put forward some useful policy implications. Finally the inadequacies of the study are summarized and the further research direction.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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