FDI对湖北省经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 13:34

本文关键词： 经济增长外商直接投资湖北误差修正模型　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文利用1990~2013年湖北省GDP和FDI数据，分析了湖北省经济发展概况和FDI利用现状。结果表明，湖北省第一产业占GDP比重持续下降；湖北省第二产业主导经济发展，占GDP的比重约50%；湖北省第三产业占GDP比重升至约40%。湖北省FDI在三次产业中的构成分布，第一产业吸收FDI仅占总额约1%~2%，第二产业约65%~75%，第三产业约30%。从行业细分角度来看，湖北省约60%的FDI投向制造业，约25%投向房地产业；FDI对第三产业投资力度逐步加大。通过对湖北省GDP和FDI数据进行计量分析，研究FDI对GDP的作用和两者均衡关系。结果表明，短期内FDI可促进GDP增长；但是长期来看，GDP与FDI虽然存在数理逻辑上的稳定关系，但这种稳定关系不代表任何Granger因果关系或促进作用，即长期来看FDI不能促进湖北省经济增长。通过误差修正模型，计算得出LnGDP对LnFDI的短期弹性0.046，长期弹性为0.27。FDI通过两者间的长期数理关系主导GDP的波动，GDP随机偏离则由误差修正项ecm即时调整。为了维持LnGDP和LnFDI数理上的长期稳定关系，t时刻将以0.331508的速率，对（t-1）时刻的非均衡状态进行调整，减少LnGDP在长期均衡值右方向的偏离趋势，，使LnGDP的波动回归长期稳定状态。最后，对利用FDI促进湖北经济增长提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of GDP and FDI in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2013, this paper analyzes the general situation of economic development and the present situation of FDI utilization in Hubei Province. The results show that the proportion of primary industry to GDP in Hubei Province is decreasing, and the secondary industry dominates the economic development in Hubei Province. The proportion of GDP in Hubei Province is about 50; the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP in Hubei Province has risen to about 400.The composition and distribution of FDI in the three industries in Hubei Province, the primary industry absorbing FDI accounts for only about 1% of the total amount, the second industry is about 65%, the third industry is about 30%. From the angle of industry segmentation, About 60% of FDI in Hubei Province is invested in manufacturing industry and 25% in real estate industry. Based on the econometric analysis of GDP and FDI data in Hubei Province, this paper studies the effect of FDI on GDP and their equilibrium relationship. The results show that FDI can promote GDP growth in the short term, but in the long run there is a stable relationship between FDI and FDI in mathematical logic. However, this stable relationship does not mean any Granger causality or promotion, that is, FDI can not promote economic growth in Hubei Province in the long run. Through the error correction model, The short-term elasticity of LnGDP to LnFDI is 0.046, and the long-term elasticity is 0.27.The random deviation of LnGDP is adjusted by the error correction term ecm in order to maintain the long-term stability of LnGDP and LnFDI in order to maintain the long-term stability of LnGDP and LnFDI. The relationship time will be at the rate of 0.331508, In order to reduce the deviation trend of LnGDP in the right direction of long-term equilibrium value and to make the fluctuation of LnGDP return to long-term stable state, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote Hubei's economic growth by using FDI.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F127

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