我国投资利率弹性及其提高途径研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 00:04

本文关键词： 投资利率投资利率弹性利率传导机制　出处：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,随着经济的突飞猛进金融业也得到了快速发展,在国民经济中的作用越来越重要,已经成为国民经济的支柱产业。随着金融业在国民经济中重要性的提高,利率在经济运行中的杠杆作用也逐渐显现,一些发达国家陆续把利率作为货币政策工具来调控宏观经济。利率作为现代经济学中的一个重要的金融变量,也是经济运行的基本因素之一,不仅是连接微观经济和宏观经济的重要桥梁,而且在经济运行中起着杠杆作用,几乎和所有的金融现象都有着密不可分的联系。近年来,世界各国开始重视利率的杠杆效应,并据此频繁地利用利率工具对宏观经济进行调控。利率政策已经成为各国中央银行进行宏观调控的重要货币政策工具之一,在宏观调控中的地位越来越重要。在现代国民经济运行中,利率是货币政策的中间目标,是一国通过货币政策进行宏观调控的主要工具之一,在国民经济中起着杠杆的作用。货币政策发挥作用的主要途径是中央银行通过调整利率来影响融资成本,问接影响投资者利润的大小,投资者据此来决定是否投资以及投资规模的大小,进而对国民收入等一系列国民经济因素产生相应的影响。由此可见,一国的投资量对利率变化的敏感程度对本国货币政策的有效性起着决定性的作用。根据传统经济学理论可知,投资量对利率变化的敏感程度可以用投资利率弹性来衡量。因此,研究一国投资利率弹性能够为货币政策的制定和实施提供强有力的理论依据和指导。本文的研究目的主要是：首先,学习研究前人的研究成果,对其进行整理归纳,借鉴他们的研究方法。其次,在此基础上,结合我国的具体国情,利用中国统计年鉴以及中国经济网的相关数据,对我国投资利率弹性现状以及投资和利率的相关性进行实证分析。最后,结合实证分析结果分析我国的投资利率弹性现状,从理论上找出造成我国投资利率弹性偏低的原因,探索提高我国投资利率弹性的途径,并提出相关的政策建议,为我国货币政策的制定和实施提供理论依据和方向指导。从研究方法来看,本文以前人的研究为基础,结合理论研究和实证分析的方法,通过中国统计年鉴和中国经济网查找数据,以2002——2012年为研究期间,以一年期贷款利率为自变量,全社会固定资产投资额为因变量,分别用消费者物价指数和固定资产投资指数对自变量和因变量做剔除通货膨胀因素处理,然后通过统计学方法用公式EI=-(ΔI/I)/(Δr/r)计算我国的实际投资利率弹性。之后采用1980——2013年的数据通过Eviews软件对模型InI=β0-β1r+μ做最小二乘法来分析我国投资和利率的相关程度,得出我国投资利率弹性偏低、投资和利率相关性不大的结论。最后,在前文理论分析和实证分析的基础上,本文深入探讨了我国投资利率弹性偏低的原因,找出了提高我国投资利率弹性的途径,并针对存在的问题提出了相关的政策建议。从文章的结构安排来看,本文共包括六个章节。第一章是导论部分,主要介绍了文章的研究背景、研究意义、研究思路和方法以及研究框架。第二章是文献综述部分,主要对国内外关于利率投资弹性的相关研究做了粗略的介绍,并进行简单述评。第三章是相关理论介绍,详细阐述了投资利率弹性的相关理论,包括投资利率弹性的概念以及利率传导机制,分别从降低利率对私人投资、政府投资以及资本市场等方而的影响来分析利率调整对投资变动的影响。第四章是现状分析部分,首先以2002——2012年为研究区间,根据中国统计年鉴以及中国经济网的相关数据,用统计学的方法来计算我国的投资利率弹性,其次,以1980——2013年为研究区间,采用计量经济学的方法对我国投资和利率的相关性进行实证分析。其次,在前文理论分析和实证研究的基础上,结合我国的具体国情对我国投资利率弹性的现状做了简单介绍。第五章是原因分析部分,主要从市场主体、金融体制、利率市场化以及投资渠道等方面分析造成我国投资利率弹性不敏感现状的原因。第六章是政策途径部分,阐述了我国提高投资利率弹性的必要性,并指出提高我国投资利率弹性的相关途径,提出相应的政策建议。本文最大可能创新点在于：首先,指出前人在研究我国投资利率弹性时混淆弹性和斜率概念的错误做法并给予纠正。其次,用统计学的方法计算我国投资利率弹性,使我们可以很直观地看出我国投资利率弹性偏低的现状。最后,把理论研究和实证研究相结合,详细地阐述了我国投资利率弹性偏低的现状及其原因,并从多方而找出提高我国投资利率弹性的途径,提出具体可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, along with the rapid development of economy and financial industry has been rapid development, more and more important in the national economy, has become a pillar industry of the national economy. With the importance of the financial sector in the national economy increases, the interest rate leverage in the economy is gradually emerging, some developed countries have shifted the interest rate as monetary policy tools to adjust the macro economy. The interest rate as an important financial variables in modern economics, is one of the basic factors of economic operation, not only is the important bridge connecting the micro economy and macro economy, and in the economy plays a leverage, and almost all the financial phenomena are inextricably linked. In recent years, the world started to pay attention to the interest rate leverage effect, and the frequent use of the interest rate as a tool of macroeconomic regulation and control policy of interest rate. It has become one of the important monetary policy tools for macroeconomic regulation and control by the central banks of various countries. It is becoming more and more important in macro control.
In the modern economy, the interest rate is the intermediate target of monetary policy, is one of the main tools of macroeconomic regulation through monetary policy, leverage plays a role in the national economy. The main way of monetary policy to play the role of the central bank by adjusting interest rates to influence the cost of financing, the indirect effects of investors profit size accordingly, investors to decide whether to invest and the size of the scale of investment, and the corresponding impact on national income and a series of national economic factors. Thus, the sensitivity of investment to interest rate changes in the effectiveness of its monetary policy plays a decisive role. According to the traditional economic theory, the sensitivity of investment amount the interest rate changes can be used to measure the interest rate elasticity of investment. Therefore, the interest rate elasticity of a country's investment to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy Provide a strong theoretical basis and guidance.
The purpose of this research is: first, the study on the results of previous studies, summarizing from their research methods. Secondly, on this basis, combined with China's specific national conditions, using the China statistical yearbook and related data China economic network, to analyze the present situation and the interest rate elasticity of investment in China the relationship between investment and the interest rate. Finally, the results of empirical analysis and investment analysis of the interest rate elasticity of the current situation of our country, find out the reasons from the theory of interest rate elasticity of investment in China is low, explore a way to improve China's investment interest rate elasticity, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions, provide theoretical basis and direction for the development of China's monetary policy the implementation and guidance.
From the research methods, this paper based on previous studies, combined with the method of theoretical research and empirical analysis, through China statistical yearbook and China economic net search data, from 2002 to 2012 as the research period, the one-year lending rate as independent variables, total investment in fixed assets as the dependent variable, respectively, with the consumer price index and fixed asset investment index of independent and dependent variables do for inflation, then through statistical methods using the formula EI=- (I/I) / (r/r) actual investment interest rate elasticity calculation in China. After the 1980 2013 data through the Eviews software model of InI= beta 0- beta 1r+ do the least squares method to analyze the correlation between investment and the interest rate in China, the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is low, less investment and interest rate correlation analysis. Finally, in the above theoretical analysis and empirical On the basis of this, this paper probes into the reasons for the low elasticity of investment interest rate in China, finds out the way to improve the elasticity of investment interest rate, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the existing problems.
From the arrangement of the structure, this thesis consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly introduces the research background, the research significance, research ideas and methods and research framework. The second chapter is literature review, mainly for domestic and foreign investment on the interest rate elasticity of the research are simply introduced. And a simple review. The third chapter introduces the related theories, elaborates the theory related to the interest rate elasticity of investment, including investment interest rate elasticity and the concept of interest rate transmission mechanism, from lower interest rates on private investment, government investment and capital market, and to analyze the impact of interest rate on investment. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the present situation, first from 2002 to 2012 as the research object, according to the Chinese statistical yearbook and related data China economic network, using statistical methods to calculate China Secondly, the interest rate elasticity of investment, from 1980 to 2013 as the research object, using the econometric methods of the correlation between China's investment and interest rates for empirical analysis. Secondly, based on the previous theoretical analysis and empirical research, combined with China's specific conditions of the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is briefly introduced. Fifth chapter is the reason analysis, mainly from the main body of the market, the financial system, the marketization of interest rate and investment channels to analyze the cause of the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is not sensitive to the status quo. The sixth chapter is the part of the policy approach, expounds the necessity of improving the investment interest rate elasticity, and points out the way to improve the interest rate elasticity of investment in China and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
The biggest innovation lies in: first, it is pointed out that the study on the interest rate elasticity of investment in China and the confusion of the concept of slope elastic mistake and corrected. Secondly, calculate the interest rate elasticity of investment in China with the method of statistics, we can intuitively see the status of the low interest rate elasticity of investment in China. Finally, the theory of research and empirical research, elaborates the status and reasons of the low interest rate elasticity of investment in China, and from the multi and find ways to improve the interest rate elasticity of investment in China, put forward the concrete and feasible policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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