基于RAM模型的中国省际低碳经济效率研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 01:17

本文关键词： 低碳经济效率RAM模型低碳全要素生产率　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在气候变暖、环境污染和能源危机等问题威胁人类生存与发展的情况下，各国在应对全球变暖问题上达成了广泛地共识。发展低碳经济要求中国必须关注资源、环境及经济的协调发展，将“碳排放”因素纳入到经济发展考察系统中，实现向以低能耗、低排放为基础，经过技术与制度创新、资源密集型产业向技术密集型产业的转型、清洁能源等新能源的开发与利用等各种手段实现经济发展与环境保护共赢的低碳经济发展模式靠拢。因此，转型时期的中国面临着经济增长和节能减碳的权衡，目前对这二者协调程度的判断是一个研究热点。本文综合运用DEA方法的前言研究成果——RAM模型、非参数秩和检验以及收敛检验方法针对中国低碳经济效率问题从静态水平和动态演进情况综合考察，以对中国省际的能源、碳排放与经济增长的均衡状况做出全面评价。以环境技术理论为基础，利用RAM模型在分别测算经济效率和碳排放效率的基础上，，利用模型的加性结构特征，构建了用于测算能源、碳排放与经济增长均衡发展状况，亦即低碳经济效率的RAM模型，并通过对松弛变量的分解分析探讨了能源、碳排放和经济增长均衡发展状况不佳的内生性源泉；将序列生产可能性集合的假定引入到RAM模型和ML指数，从而构建了低碳全要素生产率指数并对其进行了分解分析，探讨其变化的深层次原因。本研究得出以下结论：第一，呈上升趋势的中国低碳经济效率主要是由碳环境效率的改善带来的；中国的经济效率、碳环境效率和低碳经济效率存在区域差异，呈东-中-西的梯度分布；过度投资和过度能耗是中国经济效率、碳排放效率和低碳经济效率的非效率源泉；全国、东部和西部的低碳经济效率表现出明显的σ收敛，存在趋同性，但不能确定中部是否存在σ收敛；第二，粗放的发展方式损害了中国低碳全要素生产率的增长，目前高额的环境成本制约着中国发展质量的提升，中国亟待向能源、碳排放与经济增长协调发展的低碳经济模式转型；2006年之前，低碳全要素生产率的增长主要是由地区间效率的追赶效应推动，而2006年后，中国出现了明显的技术进步。研究成果的价值主要有：第一，通过基于双重产出的RAM低碳经济效率模型的构建实现了对能源、碳排放与经济增长协调发展程度的合理判断，形成了对低碳经济效率的测算体系，并通过松弛变量分解分析对非效率的来源进行了深入考察，为探讨考虑能源、碳排放情况下的经济增长提供了新的视角。第二，本文构建的低碳全要素生产率指数改进了基于当期生产可能集合的全要素生产率指数的测算方法，从而避免了宏观经济波动对指数计算的冲击和对技术退步的误判。
[Abstract]:With global warming, environmental pollution and energy crisis threatening the survival and development of mankind, countries have reached a broad consensus on how to deal with global warming. The development of a low-carbon economy requires China to pay attention to resources. With the coordinated development of environment and economy, the "carbon emission" factor is brought into the economic development investigation system, and the transformation of resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry is realized, which is based on low energy consumption and low emission, and through technological and institutional innovation. The development and utilization of new energy sources such as clean energy and other means to achieve win-win economic development and environmental protection low-carbon economic development model. Therefore, in the transition period, China is faced with the trade-off between economic growth and energy saving and carbon reduction. At present, the judgment of the degree of coordination between the two is a research hotspot. In this paper, DEA model, non-parametric rank sum test and convergence test are used to investigate the dynamic and static evolution of low-carbon economic efficiency in China. The equilibrium of carbon emission and economic growth is evaluated comprehensively. Based on the theory of environmental technology and the RAM model, the additive structural characteristics of the model are used to calculate the economic efficiency and carbon emission efficiency respectively. A RAM model for measuring the equilibrium development of energy, carbon emissions and economic growth, that is, low carbon economic efficiency, is constructed, and the energy source is discussed through the decomposition analysis of relaxation variables. This paper introduces the hypothesis of sequence production possibility set into RAM model and ML index to construct and decompose the low carbon total factor productivity index. The deep reason of its change is discussed. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: first, the increasing trend of China's low-carbon economic efficiency is mainly caused by the improvement of carbon environmental efficiency, and there are regional differences in China's economic efficiency, carbon environmental efficiency and low carbon economic efficiency. Overinvestment and excessive energy consumption are the non-efficiency sources of China's economic efficiency, carbon emission efficiency and low carbon economic efficiency. The low carbon economic efficiency of the whole country, the eastern and western parts of the country shows obvious 蟽 convergence. There is convergence, but it is not certain whether there is 蟽 convergence in the middle. Secondly, extensive development has damaged the growth of low carbon total factor productivity in China, and the high environmental cost is restricting the improvement of China's development quality. Before 2006, the growth of low carbon total factor productivity (TFP) was mainly driven by the catch-up effect of inter-regional efficiency, and after 2006, China needed to transform into a low-carbon economic model that coordinated the development of energy, carbon emissions and economic growth, and before 2006, the growth of low-carbon TFP was mainly driven by the catch-up effect of inter-regional efficiency. There has been marked technological progress in China. The value of the research results is as follows: first, through the construction of RAM low carbon economic efficiency model based on dual output, the reasonable judgment on the degree of coordinated development of energy, carbon emissions and economic growth is realized. A system of measuring low carbon economic efficiency is formed, and the sources of non-efficiency are investigated through relaxation variable decomposition analysis, which provides a new perspective for economic growth under the consideration of energy and carbon emissions. The low carbon total factor productivity index constructed in this paper improves the calculation method of total factor productivity index based on the possible set of production in the current period, thus avoiding the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on index calculation and misjudgment of technological retrogression.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5;F224

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