人口老龄化、人力资本结构对区域产业升级影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-20 23:44

本文关键词： 人口老龄化人力资本结构区域产业升级空间外溢效应　出处：《统计与决策》2017年16期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章以中国各省份2001—2015年面板数据为基础,从全国和区域层面分析人口老龄化、人力资本结构等因素对区域产业升级的影响。从全国层面看,人口老龄化对产业升级有正向促进作用并且正向空间外溢效应显著;人力资本存量也能促进产业升级,人力资本异质性对其是负向影响,当人力资本存量一定时,随着基尼系数的增大,人力资本水平的增加对产业结构升级的影响变小。从区域层面看,老龄化对东部地区的产业升级是负向影响,对中西部地区是正向影响;西部地区初级人力资本的负向外溢效应比较明显,中级人力资本在东部地区会阻碍产业转型,在中部地区影响不显著,而在西部地区对产业发展有正向促进作用,高级人力资本会显著促进各地区产业升级。
[Abstract]:Based on panel data of Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2015, this paper analyzes the effects of aging population and human capital structure on regional industrial upgrading at the national and regional levels. Population aging has a positive effect on industrial upgrading and positive spatial spillover effect is significant; Human capital stock can also promote industrial upgrading, human capital heterogeneity has a negative impact on it, when the human capital stock is fixed, With the increase of Gini coefficient, the influence of human capital level on the upgrading of industrial structure becomes smaller. From the regional level, the aging has a negative impact on the industrial upgrading in the eastern region and a positive impact on the central and western regions. The negative spillover effect of the primary human capital in the western region is obvious. The intermediate human capital will hinder the industrial transformation in the eastern region, but the impact in the central region is not significant, but in the western region, it has a positive effect on the industrial development. Senior human capital will significantly promote regional industrial upgrading.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【分类号】：C924.24;F127;F249.27

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