重庆市经济增长与环境质量的关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 03:45

本文关键词： EKC 经济增长环境质量回归分析因素分解法　出处：《重庆工商大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国经济的快速发展，随之爆发了不少环境污染问题，“雾霾”已包围几大省市，一些地方水污染、大气污染严重，环境问题日益严重，已经引起了党中央、机关干部和人民群众的高度重视。重庆市自从直辖以来，经济增长和工业进程都有了极大的发展，人民生活水平也不断提高，与此同时，，难以避免地存在着经济增长与环境质量之间的矛盾，如何在保证经济增长的同时，有效的减少对环境的污染与破坏，甚至在经济发展到一定程度时，对环境质量起到改善作用，进而实现经济增长与环境保护的可持续发展，成为政府和学者关注的重点问题。本文大量搜集、整理和分析国内外对经济与环境研究的文献，在环境库茨涅兹曲线（EKC）假说的基础上对重庆市经济增长与环境质量的相互关系进行实证研究，最后结合重庆市自身特点，提出相应的政策建议。本文主要的结论为：重庆市1997-2012年间经济增长和环境质量状况表明，重庆市自直辖以来实现了经济的快速增长，第二产业产值大幅上升，人均GDP不断提高，环境污染和生态环境总体在一定程度出现好转态势，但具体看仍存在着对环境的较大污染与破坏，环境问题不容忽视。 EKC的计量结果表明，经济与环境之间互为因果，存在长期协整关系。环境污染综合指数与经济增长的曲线关系呈现倒N型，环境污染程度随经济增长实现了先下降后上升再下降的趋势，且分别于2002年和2009年跨过两次转折点；生态环境综合指数则呈线性增长趋势，随经济增长不断好转；环境质量综合指数二者综合作用，呈倒U型且在1997年以前跨过EKC顶点进入下降趋势。而C-D生产函数的扩展模型的回归分析则表明了环境质量的恶化会在一定程度上导致经济增长的下滑；相反，生态环境的改善，对经济增长起到积极作用。 EKC成因探析中因素分解法和定性分析结果表明，经济快速增长带来的规模效应是造成重庆市自直辖至今污染物排放的增加主要原因，产业结构变化的优劣则与环境质量的好坏成同向变动，在一定程度上影响着环境污染的排放，而科技进步的技术效应、交叉效应与政府环保政策的政策效应对环境质量的改善起到了积极作用。虽然，重庆市产业结构仍存在重工业化、重污染产业多的局面，但除了1997~2002年和2002~2009年工业废气排放外，经济增长的规模效应对环境恶化的作用始终低于产业结构变动的结构效应、技术效应和交叉效应对环境质量的改善作用之和，使得当前重庆市整体环境污染成下降趋势，环境污染已经经过拐点，这也可以解释重庆市环境库茨涅兹曲线出现了倒N型和倒U型的原因。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid economic development of our country, a lot of environmental pollution problems have broken out. "haze" has surrounded several major provinces and cities, polluted water in some places, seriously polluted the atmosphere, and the environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which has caused the Party Central Committee. Since Chongqing became under its direct jurisdiction, economic growth and industrial progress have been greatly developed, and the living standards of the people have been constantly improved, while at the same time, There is inevitably a contradiction between economic growth and environmental quality. How to effectively reduce the pollution and damage to the environment while ensuring economic growth, and even improve the environmental quality when the economy develops to a certain extent, Therefore, the sustainable development of economic growth and environmental protection has become the focus of attention of the government and scholars. This paper collects, collates and analyzes domestic and foreign literature on economic and environmental research, and makes an empirical study on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Chongqing on the basis of the EKChypothesis of environmental Kuznietz curve. Finally, according to Chongqing's own characteristics, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. The economic growth and environmental quality of Chongqing between 1997 and 2012 show that Chongqing has achieved rapid economic growth since its direct jurisdiction, the output value of the secondary industry has increased substantially, and the per capita GDP has been continuously rising. Environmental pollution and ecological environment have improved to a certain extent, but there is still a great deal of pollution and damage to the environment, and environmental problems can not be ignored. The econometric results of EKC show that the relationship between economy and environment is causality, there is a long-term cointegration relationship, and the relationship between the comprehensive index of environmental pollution and economic growth is inversely N-type. The degree of environmental pollution decreased first and then increased and then decreased with the economic growth, and reached two turning points on 2002 and 2009 respectively, while the comprehensive index of ecological environment showed a linear increasing trend and improved continuously with the economic growth. Comprehensive index of environmental quality, The regression analysis of the extended model of C-D production function shows that the deterioration of environmental quality will lead to the decline of economic growth to some extent; on the contrary, the improvement of ecological environment will lead to the improvement of ecological environment. Play a positive role in economic growth. The results of factor decomposition and qualitative analysis show that the scale effect brought by rapid economic growth is the main reason for the increase of pollutant emission from Chongqing to now. The advantages and disadvantages of the industrial structure changes in the same direction as the quality of the environment, which to some extent affect the emission of environmental pollution, and the technological effects of scientific and technological progress. The cross effect and the policy effect of the government's environmental protection policy have played a positive role in improving the environmental quality. Although the industrial structure of Chongqing still has the situation of heavy industrialization and heavy pollution industry, except industrial exhaust emissions from 1997 to 2002 and from 2002 to 2009, The scale effect of economic growth on environmental deterioration is always lower than the structural effect of industrial structure change. Environmental pollution has gone through the inflection point, which can also explain why the inverted N and U type appeared in the Kuznietz curve of Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

【参考文献】