土地价格动态与宏观经济相关性

发布时间：2018-02-26 04:03

本文关键词： 土地价格土地的竞争性需求抵押渠道再分配渠道　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过构建一个带有企业信贷约束的随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE),检验了地产价格对宏观经济变量的传递效应。本文假设在企业的信贷约束中土地被作为一种抵押资产,此时要定义一个冲击,土地价格绝大部分的可观波动都是由此冲击造成的。本文的核心机制是地产价格的上升导致企业持有的地产总价值上涨,企业信贷扩张,从而带来投资、产出和消费的增长。本文的定量分析验证了这一信贷渠道的存在和扩大效应,土地价格方面的冲击由此渠道传递至宏观经济的波动。由于企业部门是受信贷约束的,所以源于家庭方面的房屋需求冲击会触发家庭企业两部门的需求竞争,并随即形成一个金融螺旋,使土地价格大幅波动的同时,使土地价格和投资、时间和消费之间产生了显著的联动性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with enterprise credit constraints is constructed to test the transfer effect of real estate prices on macroeconomic variables. This paper assumes that land is used as a mortgage asset in the credit constraints of enterprises. To define an impact at this point, most of the considerable fluctuations in land prices are caused by this shock. The core mechanism of this paper is that the rise in real estate prices leads to an increase in the total value of real estate held by enterprises, the expansion of enterprise credit, and the resulting investment. The growth of output and consumption. The quantitative analysis of this paper verifies the existence and expansion effect of this credit channel, from which the impact of land prices is transmitted to macroeconomic fluctuations. Since the enterprise sector is constrained by credit, Therefore, the impact of housing demand from the family side will trigger demand competition between the two sectors of the household business, and then form a financial spiral, which will make land prices fluctuate substantially and land prices and investments at the same time. There is a significant linkage between time and consumption.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301;F832.4;F124

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