经济发展、民生发展与城乡收入差距的研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 23:04

本文关键词： 经济发展民生发展城乡收入差距因子分析面板向量自回归模型　出处：《湖南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放初期,我国长期坚持“效率优先”的发展战略,经济增长成为国家和地区追求的首要目标。我国GDP增长速度从1998年的7.8%最高增长到2007年的14.2%,经济建设取得了瞩目成就,但长期片面追求经济增长速度,对公平问题和民生建设的忽视,导致了国家和地区经济发展失衡,城乡发展不均,民生发展滞后。全国城乡收入比从1998年的2.45增长到2009年的3.33,并维持在3.10以上。教育、医疗、社会保障等与人民生活密切相关的基本民生问题突出,民生水平低下。因此,党的十七大报告提出要加快转变经济发展方式,促进社会协调发展。党的十八届三中全会进一步提出,要深化经济改革,紧紧保障和改善民生,改革收入分配,保证社会协调有序发展。持续发展经济、不断改善民生,实现经济与民生的共同发展成为我国社会关注的重点问题。故深入研究经济与民生的关系,对于社会的协调发展有着至关重要的作用。文章在已有对经济与民生关系研究的基础上引入城乡收入差距这一与经济和民生要素都有至关重要作用的变量,深入两者之间的相互关系,以及城乡收入差距在其中的参与机制。首先建立经济与民生作用机制的理论分析框架,运用因子分析对经济和民生发展水平进行综合测度,分析经验数据呈现的发展规律,进而构建面板向量自回归模型,结合GMM估计、脉冲响应函数及方差分解结果检验经济与民生发展之间的相互关系,以及城乡收入差距的参与对两者之间相互关系产生的影响。研究发现：经济与民生之间存在着直接普遍的互惠关系。在城乡收入差距参与下的间接效应不同地区有着不同结论。就全国范围而言,城乡收入差距的参与限制了经济对民生的促进作用,加深了民生对经济的促进作用,因而,通过改善民生促进经济发展同时兼顾调节城乡二元结构、缩小城乡收入差距显得更加有效；就东部地区而言,城乡收入差距的参与使得民生对经济的促进作用受到限制,经济对民生的促进作用却得到加深,因此东部地区应该坚持转变经济发展方式,加快经济发展步伐；就中部地区而言,城乡收入差距的参与既加深了经济对民生的促进作用也加深了民生对经济的促进作用,但分别通过扩大和缩小收入差距实现,因此中部地区实现经济社会协调发展的关键所在应是城乡收入差距发展方向的抉择；就西部地区而言,城乡收入差距的参与在短期会加深经济对民生的促进作用,在长期则会限制经济对民生的促进作用,同时城乡收入差距的参与会加深民生对经济的促进作用。因此,西部应以重点发展民生为主。
[Abstract]:In the early stage of reform and opening up, our country persisted in the development strategy of "efficiency first" for a long time, and economic growth became the primary goal pursued by the country and the region. The GDP growth rate of our country increased from 7.8% in 1998 to 14.2 in 2007. The economic construction has made remarkable achievements. However, the long-term and one-sided pursuit of economic growth rate and the neglect of the issue of equity and the construction of the people's livelihood have led to an imbalance in the economic development of the country and the region, and uneven development between urban and rural areas. The national income ratio between urban and rural areas increased from 2.45 on 1998 to 3.33 on 2009, and remained above 3.10. The basic livelihood issues, such as education, medical treatment, and social security, are prominent and the people's livelihood is low. The report of the 17th CPC National Congress proposed to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development and promote the coordinated development of society. The third Plenary session of the 18 CPC Central Committee further proposed that we should deepen economic reform, ensure and improve people's livelihood, and reform income distribution. Ensuring the coordinated and orderly development of the society, continuously developing the economy, improving the people's livelihood and realizing the common development of the economy and the people's livelihood have become the key issues of our society. Therefore, the relationship between the economy and the people's livelihood has been deeply studied. On the basis of the existing research on the relationship between economy and people's livelihood, this paper introduces the urban-rural income gap, which plays an important role in the economic and livelihood factors. First of all, establish the theoretical analysis framework of the economic and livelihood mechanism, and use factor analysis to measure the development level of economy and people's livelihood. The development law of empirical data is analyzed, and then the panel vector autoregressive model is constructed. Combined with GMM estimation, impulse response function and variance decomposition results, the relationship between economy and people's livelihood is tested. The study found that there is a direct and universal reciprocal relationship between economy and people's livelihood. Indirect effects in different regions with the participation of urban-rural income gap. There are different conclusions. As far as the country is concerned, The participation of urban-rural income gap limits the role of the economy in promoting the people's livelihood and deepens the role of the people's livelihood in promoting economic development, thus promoting economic development by improving the people's livelihood and simultaneously regulating the dual structure of urban and rural areas. Narrowing the urban-rural income gap is more effective; in the eastern region, the participation of the urban-rural income gap limits the contribution of people's livelihood to the economy, but the role of the economy in promoting the people's livelihood is deepened. Therefore, the eastern region should persist in changing the mode of economic development and speed up the pace of economic development. As far as the central region is concerned, the participation of the urban-rural income gap not only deepens the role of the economy in promoting the people's livelihood, but also deepens the role of the people's livelihood in promoting the economy. But by enlarging and narrowing the income gap respectively, the key to realize the coordinated economic and social development in the central region should be the choice of the development direction of the urban-rural income gap; as far as the western region is concerned, The participation of urban-rural income gap in the short term will deepen the role of the economy in promoting the people's livelihood, while in the long run it will limit the role of the economy in promoting the people's livelihood. At the same time, the participation of the urban-rural income gap will deepen the contribution of the people's livelihood to the economy. The western region should focus on the development of people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124;D61

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