“一带一路”倡议与中国对沿线国家的贸易增长

发布时间：2018-02-28 02:10

  本文关键词： 一带一路 出口增长 双重差分　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自"一带一路"倡议提出以来,中国与沿线国家务实合作已取得了一系列重要的早期成果。本文利用1996-2014年期间的中国海关数据库并结合世界发展指标数据库,对"一带一路"倡议是否能促进中国对"一带一路"国家出口增长进行了考察。实证结果发现,"一带一路"倡议的提出显著地促进了中国对"一带一路"国家的出口增长,且对出口数量增长的影响要大于对价格上升的影响,对异质性产品出口增长的影响要大于对同质性产品的影响,且对非邻国的出口促进效应大于对邻国的出口促进效应,对我国与"一路"国家出口的促进作用大于对"一带"国家的出口促进作用。利用微观数据实证说明了"一带一路"倡议的实施确实有助于提振我国的出口贸易,区分不同类型进行实证拓展更论证了这一倡议的政策针对性。
[Abstract]:Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, practical cooperation between China and the countries along the route has achieved a series of important early results. This paper makes use of the China Customs Database from 1996 to 2014 and combines the World Development indicators Database. This paper examines whether the "Belt and Road" initiative can promote China's export growth to the country "Belt and Road." the empirical results show that the proposal of the "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly promoted China's export growth to the "Belt and Road" countries. The effect on export volume growth is greater than that on price increase, and the influence on heterogeneity product export growth is greater than on homogeneous product, and the export promotion effect on non-neighbouring country is greater than that on neighbouring country. The export promotion role of China and the "one Road" countries is greater than that of the "belt" countries. The use of microcosmic data demonstrates that the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative is indeed helpful in boosting China's export trade. Differentiation of different types of empirical expansion more demonstrated the policy pertinence of this initiative.
【作者单位】： 西南财经大学国际商学院;复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院;上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国城市贸易结构空间分布研究”(71273167) 上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会“曙光计划”“我国城市比较优势形成机制研究”(14SG51)
【分类号】：F125
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本文编号：1545303