信贷投放、固定资产投资与经济增长

发布时间：2018-02-28 04:05

本文关键词： 信贷投放固定资产投资经济增长 TVP-VAR模型　出处：《宏观经济研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文选择1992—2014年国内生产总值的季度数据、固定资产投资增长率和信贷规模数据为样本数据,通过构建TVP-VAR模型实证检验了信贷投放、投资行为和经济增长间的关系,研究发现,信贷投放作用于经济增长的主要路径就是通过对投资规模和投资效率的影响而实现,但信贷投放、投资与经济增长间并非始终呈现同步变化的态势,在对信贷总量增长对经济增长的影响进行检验后发现,来自于信贷投放的刺激效用能够实现短期内的经济增长,但长期来看其作用力度呈减弱态势;不仅如此,在不同的时期,信贷所发挥的经济刺激效用并不完全一致。未来应从根本上实现对经济增长路径的改善,也才能真正发挥信贷、投资对经济增长的有效助推。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the quarterly data of GDP from 1992 to 2014, fixed asset investment growth rate and credit scale data as sample data, and empirically tests the relationship between credit investment, investment behavior and economic growth by constructing TVP-VAR model. The main path of credit investment to economic growth is realized through the influence on investment scale and investment efficiency. However, the relationship between credit investment, investment and economic growth does not always show a trend of synchronous change. After examining the impact of total credit growth on economic growth, it is found that the stimulative effect from credit lending can achieve economic growth in the short term, but in the long run its effect is weakened; not only that, but in different periods, The effect of economic stimulus played by credit is not completely consistent. In the future, we should fundamentally improve the path of economic growth in order to really give full play to credit and the effective boost of investment to economic growth.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学商学院;
【分类号】：F124.1;F283;F832.4

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