天津市经济增长与环境污染关系的实证分析与对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 09:15

本文关键词： 经济增长环境污染 VAR模型　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：天津位于环渤海的中心区域,具有比较强大的综合实力,其中工业实力尤为雄厚。工业化进程的加快不仅推动了天津市经济的高速发展,也导致了生产生活中污染物排放量的急剧增加,从而使得天津市的环境面临着严峻的考验。然而环境的恶化也给天津市的可持续发展战略的实施增加了难度。因此,有必要对天津市的经济增长与环境污染间的关系进行研究分析。由广泛的实证研究可知,经济增长会造成环境不同程度的污染,然而经济的增长是否一定会加剧环境的污染状况,经济与环境之间究竟是良性互动还是恶性互动,则要根据所选区域的经济情况和污染物指标而定。根据数据的可得性,本文选取天津市二十一年的时序数据为例做实证分析,通过收集天津市1990—2012年的人均GDP和衡量环境污染水平的代表性数据,建立了天津市的经济增长与环境污染的VAR模型,并在所建VAR模型的基础上,采用广义脉冲响应与方差分解的方法,对经济增长与代表环境污染水平的指标进行了实证检验,以此来分析天津市经济增长与环境污染水平之间的长期均衡关系。实证结果表明,天津市的经济增长与环境污染之间存在着双向的影响作用机制,在经济-环境系统中,倒U型的曲线并不是普遍存在的,这因所选环境指标的不同而不同。同时结果显示,大气污染在天津市各种污染中尤为严重,根据广义脉冲与方差分解得出,天津市在未来经济发展中要侧重关注工业废气尤其是工业二氧化硫的排放及其治理,并加强京津冀区域间的治污合作,完善空气间的联防联治的长效机制。随后结合本文的实证检验结果,通过对天津市经济和环境之间的相互影响进行了原因分析,并对天津市未来经济与环境协调发展提出了相关对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Tianjin is located in the central region of the Bohai Sea, with relatively strong comprehensive strength, especially industrial strength. The acceleration of the industrialization process not only promotes the rapid economic development of Tianjin, It also leads to a sharp increase in pollutant emissions in production and life, which makes the environment of Tianjin face a severe test. However, the deterioration of the environment also makes it more difficult to implement the sustainable development strategy of Tianjin. It is necessary to study and analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Tianjin. However, whether economic growth is bound to exacerbate environmental pollution, and whether the interaction between the economy and the environment is benign or malignant, depends on the economic situation of the selected region and the indicators of pollutants, depending on the availability of data, This paper takes 21 years' time series data of Tianjin as an example to make an empirical analysis. Through collecting the GDP per capita and representative data of measuring environmental pollution level in Tianjin from 1990 to 2012, the VAR model of Tianjin's economic growth and environmental pollution is established. Based on the established VAR model, the generalized impulse response and variance decomposition methods are used to test the economic growth and the indicators representing the level of environmental pollution. The empirical results show that there is a bidirectional influence mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Tianjin. The inverted U-shaped curve is not universal, which is different from the selected environmental index. At the same time, the result shows that the air pollution is especially serious in Tianjin, based on the decomposition of generalized pulse and variance. In future economic development, Tianjin should pay more attention to the emission and treatment of industrial exhaust gas, especially industrial sulfur dioxide, and strengthen the pollution control cooperation among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on the empirical results of this paper, the causes of the interaction between economy and environment in Tianjin are analyzed. And put forward the relevant countermeasure and suggestion to the future economy and environment coordinated development of Tianjin.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

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