经济增长中的人口因素及其作用变化

发布时间：2018-02-28 19:12

本文关键词： 人口规模人口结构经济增长人力资本红利　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：关于人口因素与经济增长之间的关系这一问题,长期以来一直存在很大的纷争。本文试图从规模和结构两个方面入手,探讨人口因素与经济增长之间的关系。本文以技术进步为切入点,将人口规模因素引入罗默的内生增长模型,发现人口规模与经济增长之间存在正向的线性关系,这种线性关系在历史长期的角度下得到验证。通过对人口规模与经济增长关系的模型进行反思,本文发现人口的年龄结构与知识结构也是影响经济增长的关键变量。人口年龄结构通过影响劳动力的供给和人民的消费、储蓄行为影响经济的发展,人口的知识结构通过劳动力素质、科技创新和对产业结构调整的支撑这三个因素对经济增长起作用。在计量分析部分,本文以中国2001-2011年各省的面板数据为基础,分析了人口因素对我国经济增长的作用,以及三个人口因素贡献的变化趋势,发现人口规模和人口年龄结构对我国的经济增长具有显著的贡献,但其贡献有减小的趋势,而人口知识结构在我国经济增长中的贡献明显上升。本文据此得出结论,我国经济增长中的人口红利因素曾发挥了重要的作用,但其贡献目前正在日趋减弱,而从人口红利向人力资本红利的转变,是我国未来经济发展的可取道路。一方面,我国应该通过教育的投入,积极创造人力资本红利；另一方面,应该着力转变经济增长方式,调整产业结构,促进人力资本红利的充分利用。
[Abstract]:There has long been a great dispute about the relationship between population factors and economic growth. This paper attempts to start with two aspects: scale and structure. This paper discusses the relationship between population factors and economic growth. This paper introduces the population scale factor into Romer's endogenous growth model, and finds that there is a positive linear relationship between population size and economic growth. This linear relationship has been verified in the long term of history. By reflecting on the model of the relationship between population size and economic growth, This paper finds that the age structure and knowledge structure of the population are also the key variables that affect the economic growth. The age structure of the population affects the economic development by influencing the supply of labor force and the consumption of the people. The knowledge structure of the population plays an important role in economic growth through three factors: the quality of labor force, the innovation of science and technology and the support to the adjustment of industrial structure. In the part of econometric analysis, this paper is based on the panel data of every province in China from 2001 to 2011. This paper analyzes the effect of population factors on China's economic growth and the changing trend of the contribution of three population factors. It is found that the population size and population age structure have a significant contribution to China's economic growth, but its contribution has a decreasing trend. The contribution of population knowledge structure in China's economic growth is obviously increasing. This paper concludes that the demographic dividend factor has played an important role in China's economic growth, but its contribution is weakening day by day. The transition from demographic dividend to human capital dividend is a desirable way for China's future economic development. On the one hand, China should actively create a human capital dividend through investment in education; on the other hand, efforts should be made to change the mode of economic growth. Adjust industrial structure, promote the full utilization of human capital dividend.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;C924.2

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