东营市综合承载力评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 00:28

本文关键词： 东营市综合承载力内部作用机制熵值-灰色关联-TOPSIS联动模型　出处：《中国石油大学(华东)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为黄河三角洲中心城市,东营市是典型的资源枯竭型城市。近年来,随着城市化和工业化的快速发展,东营市人口和用地规模激增,公共需求全面增长,资源环境约束进一步趋紧,商务成本持续攀升,城市生态环境问题日趋严峻,城市安全与防灾能力脆弱,严重影响到自然资源的可持续利用及城市经济、社会、生态和文化的可持续发展,经济社会转型迫在眉睫。2009年底,国家批复《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规划》,将东营市纳为规划重点,为东营市实现经济转型和可持续发展提供了重要转折点。在此背景下,本文结合东营市经济社会发展现状,从衡量可持续发展的城市综合承载力入手,分析东营市四个子系统承载力基本要素的内部作用机制,辨识四个子系统的核心驱动要素,建立熵权-灰色关联-TOPSIS评价模型,以东营市2005~2012年数据为基础,量化分析四个子系统承载力和综合承载力变化趋势,结果表明:2005~2012年东营市经济系统承载力和环境系统承载力出现了不同程度的增加,社会系统承载力维持在一个稳定的水平,而资源系统承载力大幅下降,东营市综合承载力稳中有升,但是上升幅度不明显。通过对承载力评价结果的分析厘清东营市发展的短板要素和优势要素,从经济、社会、环境-资源三个角度提出了提高东营市综合承载力的建议:①经济支持:依靠现代农业技术,推进生态农业建设;进一步优化产业结构,促进第三产业发展;以资本投入为基础,不断扩大内需。②社会支持:增加社会保障投入和基本建设投入,保障人民生活;不断提高人民生活水平,缩小收入差距。③环境-资源支持:提高资源使用效率,减少三废排放;加快绿色油田建设,开发清洁能源;增加生态环境建设投入,提升环境自净功能。④综合支持:抓住机遇,充分利用外部力量;兼顾城市整体性,使四个子系统协调发展。
[Abstract]:As the central city of the Yellow River Delta, Dongying City is a typical resource-exhausted city. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the population and land use scale of Dongying City has increased sharply, and the public demand has increased in an all-round way. Resources and environment constraints are further tightened, business costs continue to rise, urban ecological and environmental problems become increasingly serious, urban safety and disaster prevention capacity is fragile, which seriously affects the sustainable use of natural resources, urban economy and society. Sustainable Development of Ecology and Culture, Economic and Social Transformation is imminent. At the end of 2009, the State approved the Development Plan of the High efficiency Ecological Economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta, which will include Dongying City as the focus of the planning. It provides an important turning point for the realization of economic transformation and sustainable development in Dongying City. Under this background, this paper starts with the comprehensive carrying capacity of sustainable development by combining the present situation of economic and social development in Dongying City. This paper analyzes the internal action mechanism of the basic elements of the bearing capacity of the four subsystems in Dongying City, identifies the core driving elements of the four subsystems, and establishes an evaluation model of entropy weight-grey correlation TOPSIS, which is based on the data of Dongying from 2005 to 2012. The change trend of bearing capacity and comprehensive bearing capacity of four subsystems is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the bearing capacity of economic system and environmental system of Dongying City has increased in varying degrees from May to 2012, and the bearing capacity of social system is maintained at a stable level. However, the carrying capacity of the resources system has dropped substantially, and the comprehensive bearing capacity of Dongying City has been steadily rising, but the extent of the increase is not obvious. Through the analysis of the evaluation results of the carrying capacity, the paper clarifies the short plate elements and the dominant elements of the development of Dongying City, from the perspective of economy and society, From the three angles of environment and resources, this paper puts forward some suggestions on improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City: economic support: relying on modern agricultural technology to promote the construction of ecological agriculture; further optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the development of the tertiary industry; and taking the capital investment as the basis, Expanding the social support of domestic demand: increasing social security investment and capital construction investment to ensure people's living; improving people's living standard and narrowing income gap. 3. Environment and resources support: improving the efficiency of resource use and reducing the emission of the three wastes; Accelerate the construction of green oil fields, develop clean energy, increase the investment of ecological environment construction, promote the comprehensive support of environmental self-purification function .4: seize the opportunity, make full use of external forces, give consideration to the urban integrity, make the four subsystems develop harmoniously.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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