基于资金流量矩阵的我国收入税对消费的乘数效应分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 01:03

本文关键词： 收入税消费资金流量矩阵乘数效应　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经过国际金融危机和欧洲债务危机的洗礼后,国际经济正处于复苏阶段,但复苏速度明显放缓且新兴经济体持续动荡,这对国际经济环境来说无疑是雪上加霜。国内经济环境也不容乐观,经济发展进入新常态,经济保持中高速平稳较快增长,经济增长从主要依靠投资和出口拉动,慢慢转向由消费带动的经济增长。在这种经济环境下,党和政府“十二五”规划和十八大报告中都指出,要把握住扩大内需的战略基点,加快建立长效机制以扩大消费需求,释放居民消费潜力,并进一步明确指出“把扩大居民消费需求作为扩大内需的战略重点”。在“十三五”中又明确将“消费对经济增长贡献继续加大”作为今后五年经济社会发展的目标之一。这意味着扩大内需、促进消费仍将是我国未来实现经济平稳增长的重要因素。本文通过分析对收入税对消费的乘数效应,了解了两者之间的影响关系,对进一步了解如何通过对收入税的征收来促进我国各部门消费支出、以带动经济增长有着现实意义,本文的分析过程主要分为四分部分。第一部分:介绍了本文的研究背景与意义,通过阅读文献,了解国内外学者关于这方面的研究情况,找到本文的突破点,在该部分也提供了本文的研究思路、研究内容及方法。第二部分:主要介绍本文的理论基础以及本文分析所用的方法原理,介绍了编制资金流量矩阵是所用的方法,介绍了有关支出乘数模型和收入乘数模型的具体思路。第三部分:该部分以上文中介绍的理论机制与方法为基础,首先编制了1992-2015年的资金流量矩阵(其中主要以2014、2015年的编制为例),其次是以编制好的资金流量矩阵基础对收入税对消费的乘数效应的进行衡量(以2015年乘数效应的衡量为例),最后通过分析我国收入税对消费的乘数效应说明收入税对消费的影响作用。第四部分:通过上文的综合分析,该部分对本文的分析做出总结,并针对上文的分析提出了有效可行的建议。本文将资金流量矩阵、乘数模型等方法用于分析解决实际经济问题,从收入税的来源和使用两个角度衡量分析了其对消费的影响作用,通过分析比较我国收入税对各部门消费的支出乘数效应和收入效应,得出结论:收入税对消费的支出乘数效应大于收入乘数效应;收入税对居民消费的乘数作用明显与政府消费的乘数作用。通过上述分析,认为我国着重强调刺激居民消费,并且应从收入税的来源与支出两种途径对居民消费水平进行引导,就收入税的来源而言,应通过调整我国各收入税的税率与收入税的内部结构来刺激居民消费;就收入税的支出而言,政府部门应对收入税的使用结构和力度进行调整来改变居民消费结构等。
[Abstract]:After the baptism of the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the international economy is at a stage of recovery, but the pace of recovery has slowed markedly and the emerging economies have continued to experience turbulence. This is no doubt exacerbated by the international economic environment. The domestic economic environment is also not optimistic. Economic development has entered the new normal, the economy has maintained a high speed, steady and rapid growth, and economic growth has been driven mainly by investment and exports. Slowly turning to consumption-led economic growth. In this economic environment, both the party and the government pointed out in the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 18 National Congress report that it is necessary to grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand. To release the consumption potential of the residents, And further clearly pointed out that "to expand the consumer demand of residents as the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand." in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", it is clear that "the contribution of consumption to economic growth will continue to increase" as the next five years of economic and social development objectives. This means expanding domestic demand, The promotion of consumption will still be an important factor to achieve steady economic growth in the future. This paper analyzes the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption and understands the relationship between the two. It is of practical significance to further understand how to promote consumer expenditure in various sectors of our country through the collection of income taxes, in order to promote economic growth. The analysis process of this paper is mainly divided into four parts. The first part introduces the research background and significance of this paper, through reading the literature, understand the domestic and foreign scholars about this aspect of the research situation, find out the breakthrough point of this article, In this part, we also provide the research ideas, contents and methods of this paper. The second part mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this paper and the principle of the method used in this analysis, and introduces the method used to compile the capital flow matrix. This paper introduces the specific ideas of the expenditure multiplier model and the income multiplier model. The third part is based on the theoretical mechanism and methods described above. Firstly, the fund flow matrix for the period 1992-2015 is compiled (mainly taking 2014, 2015 as an example; secondly, the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption is measured on the basis of the prepared capital flow matrix). Finally, by analyzing the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption in China, the author explains the effect of income tax on consumption. Part 4th: through the comprehensive analysis above, This part summarizes the analysis of this paper, and puts forward some effective and feasible suggestions for the above analysis. In this paper, the methods of capital flow matrix and multiplier model are used to analyze and solve the actual economic problems. This paper analyzes the effect of income tax on consumption from the perspective of source and use of income tax, and compares the multiplier effect and income effect of income tax on consumption in various sectors. The conclusion is: the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption is greater than that of income multiplier, and the multiplier effect of income tax on resident consumption is obvious with the multiplier effect of government consumption. And we should guide the consumption level of residents from the sources of income tax and expenditure. As far as the source of income tax is concerned, we should stimulate residents' consumption by adjusting the internal structure of tax rate and income tax of each income tax in our country. As far as the expenditure of income tax is concerned, government departments should adjust the use structure and intensity of income tax to change the consumption structure of residents.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F126.1

【参考文献】