新常态下中国潜在经济增长率的测算与结构分解

发布时间：2018-03-01 11:47

本文关键词： 潜在经济增长率结构分解随机前沿分析法　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前中国经济增长呈现新常态,GDP增长率从高速增长转为中高速增长,由2012年的12.1%下降到2016年的6.7%,并且仍有可能继续下降。按照经济增长周期理论,实际经济增长率的变化有两个原因,一是由潜在增长率变化引起,二是由实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离引起。潜在经济增长率意味着资源最优配置下的最大产出能力,决定于资本、劳动力等供给面的因素;而实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离决定于投资、消费等需求因素及其与供给面的协调程度。因此,对潜在经济增长率的测算可以清楚的判断我国目前经济增长速度下降的原因以及未来变化的趋势。而对潜在经济增长率的结构分解可以寻找经济增长的源泉与动力,为今后选取相应的经济政策提供理论支撑。本文首先对潜在经济增长率的内涵和影响因素进行了理论分析,对潜在经济增长率的测算和结构分解进行了数理分析,并选取了 1990-2014年的省际面板数据进行实证研究。(1)采用时变弹性生产函数对潜在经济增长率进行测算:全国的潜在经济增长率平均为9.88%,低于实际增长率0.6个百分点;三次产业的潜在经济增长率为4.79%、14.66%、9.62%,实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离为-0.87%、-3.9%、0.05%;东部、中部、西部和东北地区的潜在经济增长率为9.49%、10.26%、9.9%、10.36%,实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离为-1.55%、0.21%、-0.18%、1.23%;表明中国经济目前面临着产业以及区域间发展不协调的问题,产出缺口为负也表明市场需求不足,如果产出缺口进一步扩大将导致经济的持续衰退。(2)利用随机前沿分析法对影响潜在经济增长率的效率因素进行了结构分解,并且还对资本和劳动力的要素投入进行了产业结构的分解。全要素生产率对潜在经济增长率的贡献率为18.75%,其中技术进步和配置效率的贡献最大分别为9.55%、4.32%。要素投入对潜在经济增长率的贡献为81.25%,说明对潜在经济增长率影响最大的还是要素投入,尤其是第一产业的劳动投入和第三产业的资本投入对潜在经济增长率的贡献率最大,分别为7.1%和33.7%。(3)在潜在增长率的结构分解基础上,预测我国2015-2020年的潜在经济增长率平均为7.23%,表明经济进入新常态,未来我国经济的增长速度还将持续放缓,经济增长的动力将由要素投入转向效率提升方面。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic growth is showing a new normal. The rate of GDP growth has changed from high to medium high speed, from 12.1% in 2012 to 6.7 in 2016, and is likely to continue to decline. According to the theory of economic growth cycle, There are two reasons for the change of the real economic growth rate, one is caused by the change of the potential growth rate, the other is caused by the deviation of the real growth rate from the potential growth rate. The potential economic growth rate means the maximum output capacity under the optimal allocation of resources. It depends on the supply side of capital and labor, while the deviation of real growth rate from potential growth rate depends on the demand factors such as investment, consumption and their coordination with supply side. The calculation of the potential economic growth rate can clearly judge the reasons for the decline of the current economic growth rate and the trend of future changes in China, and the structural decomposition of the potential economic growth rate can find the source and motive force of economic growth. In this paper, the connotation and influencing factors of the potential economic growth rate are analyzed theoretically, and the calculation and structure decomposition of the potential economic growth rate are analyzed. And selected from 1990 to 2014 inter-provincial panel data for empirical research. 1) the use of time-varying elastic production function to measure the potential economic growth rate: the national potential economic growth rate is 9.88 percent on average, 0.6 percentage points lower than the actual growth rate; The potential economic growth rate of the three industries is 4.79 and 14.66 and 9.62. The deviation of the actual growth rate from the potential growth rate is -0.87 and -3.9. The potential economic growth rate in the western and northeast regions is 9.490.26 and 9.90.36. the deviation of the real growth rate from the potential growth rate is -1.550.210.180.23.This indicates that the Chinese economy is currently facing problems of uncoordinated industrial and inter-regional development, and that the negative output gap also indicates insufficient market demand. If the output gap expands further, it will lead to a sustained recession.) the stochastic frontier analysis method is used to analyze the efficiency factors that affect the potential economic growth rate. The contribution rate of total factor productivity to potential economic growth rate is 18.75, in which the contribution of technological progress and allocation efficiency is 9.55 and 4.32 respectively. The contribution to the potential economic growth rate is 81.25, which shows that the factor input has the greatest impact on the potential economic growth rate. In particular, the labor input from the primary industry and the capital input from the tertiary industry contribute the most to the potential economic growth rate, which are 7.1% and 33.70.30 respectively) on the basis of the structural decomposition of the potential growth rate. The forecast of China's potential economic growth rate in 2015-2020 is 7.23, which indicates that the economic growth rate will continue to slow down in the future, and the power of economic growth will shift from factor input to efficiency improvement.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.1

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