基于调整离差率不确定性视角下辽宁省消费分析

发布时间：2018-03-02 19:41

本文选题：消费　切入点：不确定性　出处：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国内经济增长速度放缓及企业投资增速降低,扩大国内消费水平、创造内需、以需求驱动投资,带动国内经济实现再增长显得尤为重要。国内外学者历来重视对消费的影响因素的研究,自凯恩斯提出消费是国民收入的函数以来,经济学者相继提出了持久收入消费理论、跨期消费理论、理性预期消费理论以及其他相关的消费理论,由此可见消费理论在经济学中的重要地位与作用。消费并非只是持久收入的函数,在某种程度上消费亦受到预期及消费者对未来经济境况的乐观、悲观及主观情况的影响,也即是不确定性以及未来的预期会影响消费者的消费,国外学者及国内学者对不确定性进行了广泛的研究。这些研究主要集中在收入的不确定性对消费的影响,本文通过构建模型以辽宁省十四个地级市农村居民及城镇居民为研究对象,以2000-2012年十三年为时间跨度,通过运用面板数据模型,对比分析持久收入、收入不确定性、不确定性的方向性对农村居民及城镇居民消费的影响效应程度,不仅检验不确定性程度的影响,还检验当不确定性程度低于预期或者高于预期时的方向性影响。同时亦对比分析了持久收入对辽宁省农村居民及城镇居民消费的影响效应程度。
[Abstract]:With the domestic economic growth rate slowing and the growth rate of enterprise investment decreasing, the level of domestic consumption will be expanded, domestic demand will be created, and investment will be driven by demand. Domestic and foreign scholars have always attached importance to the study of the influencing factors of consumption. Since Keynes put forward consumption as a function of national income, economists have put forward the theory of sustainable income consumption one after another. Intertemporal consumption theory, rational expectation consumption theory and other related consumption theories show that consumption theory plays an important role in economics. Consumption is not just a function of lasting income. To a certain extent, consumption is also affected by expectations and consumer optimism, pessimism and subjective conditions about the future economic situation, that is, uncertainty and future expectations will affect consumer spending. Foreign and domestic scholars have carried out extensive research on uncertainty. These studies mainly focus on the effect of income uncertainty on consumption. This paper takes the rural and urban residents of 14 prefectural cities in Liaoning Province as the research object, and takes the 13 years from 2000 to 2012 as the time span. By using the panel data model, the paper compares and analyzes the persistent income and income uncertainty. The effect of uncertainty on the consumption of rural residents and urban residents is not only tested. It also tests the directional effect when the degree of uncertainty is lower than expected or higher than expected. At the same time, it compares and analyzes the effect of persistent income on consumption of rural residents and urban residents in Liaoning Province.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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