河南省能源消费与经济发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 08:32

本文选题：能源消费　切入点：经济发展　出处：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：河南省从经济起步到现在经济高速增长,一直都依赖于能源的大规模消费。但是,近年来,河南省经济面临着新的挑战。雾霾现象为典型的环境污染问题成为经济疲软的重要原因。河南省“十二五”规划也提出,要转变传统依赖能源的粗放型经济增长方式,经济发展也不再单纯追求经济增长速度的增加,更注重经济发展结构、方式、质量等全面表现。也因此,对能源消费也提出了新的要求,严格限制消费规模的急速扩张,要考虑消费结构、强度、利用效率等综合状况。在这样的背景下,如何降低能源消费规模和强度,优化经济发展结构,提高经济发展质量,变成省政府更为关心的问题,因而,研究能源消费综合状况与经济发展关系综合表现之间的内在关系,更具有现实意义,其研究成果为省政府制定能源经济政策提供宝贵的科学依据。经济发展与能源消费之间具有何种关系,能源消费对经济发展有何种影响是本文的研究重点。在研究两者关系之前,本文定义能源消费指数和经济发展指数作为能源消费和经济发展的综合衡量指标。并利用因子分析法分别从各评价指标体系中确定了能源消费指数和经济发展指数及其估计值,然后基于河南省1990-2012年的样本从定性和定量角度研究两者之间的内在关系。定性研究从时间序列的统计性角度进行分析,定量研究基于计量经济理论的向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数和方差分解、协整理论、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验等方法全面地分析了河南省能源消费与经济发展的滞后影响、长期关系、短期波动、短期因果关系等内在关系。研究结果表明：①河南省能源消费指数与经济发展指数之间互为Granger因果关系,相互影响；②两者存在长期均衡协整关系；③短期波动影响为,能源消费指数变动1%,引起经济发展指数变动0.04%,但是偏离均衡状态的向回调整力度较小；④能源消费指数相对于经济发展指数滞后影响更大。
[Abstract]:Henan Province has been dependent on large-scale energy consumption from the beginning of its economic development to its rapid economic growth now. However, in recent years, Henan's economy is facing new challenges. The haze phenomenon is a typical environmental pollution problem that has become an important cause of economic weakness. The 12th Five-Year Plan of Henan Province also proposes to change the traditional energy-dependent extensive economic growth mode. Economic development no longer merely seeks to increase the rate of economic growth, but pays more attention to the overall performance of the structure, mode and quality of economic development. As a result, new requirements have been put forward for energy consumption and the rapid expansion of consumption scale has been strictly restricted. Under such circumstances, how to reduce the scale and intensity of energy consumption, optimize the structure of economic development, improve the quality of economic development, become a matter of more concern to the provincial government, It is of practical significance to study the internal relationship between the comprehensive situation of energy consumption and the comprehensive performance of economic development. The research results provide a valuable scientific basis for the provincial government to formulate energy economic policies. What is the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, and what kind of impact energy consumption has on economic development is the focus of this paper. In this paper, energy consumption index and economic development index are defined as comprehensive measures of energy consumption and economic development, and energy consumption index and economic development index and their estimated values are determined from each evaluation index system by factor analysis method. Then based on the samples from 1990 to 2012 in Henan Province to study the internal relationship between them from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives, the qualitative analysis is carried out from the statistical point of view of time series, and the vector autoregressive model based on econometric theory is quantitatively studied. Impulse response function, variance decomposition, cointegration theory, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the lag effect, long-term relationship and short-term fluctuation of energy consumption and economic development in Henan Province. Short-term causality and other internal relationships. The results show that the relationship between the energy consumption index and the economic development index of Henan Province is Granger causality, and there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between them. The change of energy consumption index caused the change of economic development index by 0.04, but the intensity of backward adjustment of deviation from equilibrium state was smaller than that of energy consumption index relative to the lag of economic development index.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F127

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