安徽省消费金融发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 16:42

本文选题：消费金融　切入点：影响因素　出处：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国经济发展步入新常态,经济结构调整步伐加快,金融支持实体经济发展的作用愈加显著。因此如何更好地发挥金融服务业拉动经济增长的作用,成为众多学者研究的重要课题。消费金融是消费金融机构向居民个人或家庭提供消费信贷产品与金融服务,以跨期消费的形式最大限度满足居民的消费需求,是金融体系的重要组成部分。作为消费与经济增长的切入点,发展消费金融为我国经济发展提供了新思路。安徽省是我国中部大省,近几年安徽省生产总值居于全国中等偏上水平,而人均生产总值全国排名较靠后,且较大程度低于全国平均水平;同时安徽省居民消费水平较低,消费率不足50%,低于全国52%的平均水平且远远低于世界79%的平均水平。发展安徽省消费金融,一方面对于调整安徽省经济结构、转变经济发展方式、完善金融体系具有重要的理论价值,另一方面对刺激安徽省居民消费需求,促进安徽省经济发展具有重要的实践价值。首先,本文回顾了国内外学者对消费金融的相关研究,接着阐释了消费金融相关的消费经济理论与消费金融理论,再对消费金融的概念做了界定。其次,回顾了安徽省消费金融的发展历程,并从城乡居民消费支出的发展变化、金融机构消费信贷的发展变化、消费金融机构体系的发展变化三个方面分析了安徽省消费金融发展的现状。同时通过与国内其他省份的对比分析,发现安徽省消费金融的发展存在四个方面问题:居民消费金融观念不强,消费水平不高;消费金融有效供给不足,包括金融总量不大、消费金融产品单一、消费金融机构体系不完善;社会保障制度不健全以及社会信用环境不佳。然后,本文在理论分析的基础上,结合安徽省实际情况,从经济、社会、法律与监管制度等方面,对安徽省消费金融发展的影响因素进行了分析。接着筛选变量,确定以消费信贷余额为被解释变量,以安徽省生产总值、居民消费价格指数、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇化率和贷款利率为解释变量,并通过对各变量进行平稳性检验、协整检验、格林因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析等实证研究。结果表明:影响安徽省消费金融发展的显著因素是安徽省生产总值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、城镇化率和贷款利率,并且居民消费价格指数、贷款利率长期对消费信贷是反向影响,安徽省生产总值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇化率对消费信贷是正向影响。针对安徽省消费金融发展中存在的问题并根据实证结果,最后本文从微观和宏观两个方面为安徽省消费金融的发展提出对策和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic development has stepped into a new normal, the pace of economic restructuring has been quickened, and the role of financial support for the development of the real economy has become more and more significant. Therefore, how to better play the role of financial services in stimulating economic growth, Consumer finance is to provide consumer credit products and financial services to individuals or households, and to meet the consumption needs of residents in the form of intertemporal consumption to the maximum extent. It is an important part of the financial system. As a breakthrough point of consumption and economic growth, the development of consumer finance provides a new way of thinking for the economic development of our country. Anhui Province is a big province in the central part of China. In recent years, the gross domestic product of Anhui Province is in the middle and upper level of the whole country, while the national ranking of the per capita GDP is relatively low, and to a large extent it is lower than the national average. At the same time, the consumption level of the residents in Anhui Province is low. The consumption rate is less than 50%, lower than the national average of 52% and far lower than the world average of 79%. To develop consumer finance in Anhui Province, on the one hand, to adjust the economic structure of Anhui Province and to change the mode of economic development, Improving the financial system has important theoretical value, on the other hand, it has important practical value to stimulate the consumption demand of Anhui residents and promote the economic development of Anhui Province. First, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign scholars' related research on consumer finance. Then it explains the consumer economy theory and the consumption finance theory, then defines the concept of consumer finance. Secondly, it reviews the development course of consumer finance in Anhui Province, and changes from the development of urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure. The development and change of consumer credit of financial institutions and the development and change of consumer financial institutions system are analyzed in three aspects: the present situation of consumer finance development in Anhui Province. At the same time, it is compared with other provinces in China. It is found that there are four problems in the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province: the concept of consumer finance is not strong, the consumption level is not high, and the effective supply of consumer finance is insufficient, including the small amount of finance and the single consumer financial product. The consumptive financial institution system is not perfect, the social security system is not perfect and the social credit environment is not good. Then, on the basis of theoretical analysis, combining with the actual situation of Anhui Province, this paper discusses the economic, social, legal and regulatory systems, etc. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province, and then selects the variables to be explained by the balance of consumer credit, the gross domestic product of Anhui Province, the consumer price index, the per capita disposable income of urban residents. Urbanization rate and loan interest rate as explanatory variables, and through the stability of the variables, cointegration test, Green causality test, The results show that the significant factors affecting the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province are the gross domestic product (GDP), the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the consumer price index, the urbanization rate and the loan interest rate. Moreover, the consumer price index and loan interest rate have a negative impact on consumer credit for a long time. The gross domestic product of Anhui Province, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, The urbanization rate has a positive impact on consumer credit. In view of the problems existing in the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province and according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province from the micro and macro aspects.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832;F126.1

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