海外主要油气产国油气投资环境及影响因素演化

发布时间：2018-03-04 01:13

本文选题：海外油气投资环境　切入点：模糊聚类分析　出处：《经济地理》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于七种单一评价模型分别对油气投资环境进行评价,使用模糊聚类分析和Kendall协调系数法对模型的相容性进行检验,确定相容方法集,进而构建油气投资环境的最优加权组合评价模型,以消除不同评价理论评价结果之间的不一致性,提高评价结果的合理性。以我国五大主要油气投资地区中的40个主要油气生产国家为研究对象,基于该评价模型使用2006—2015年数据对油气投资环境演化及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:2006—2013年海外油气投资环境整体呈现上升趋势,2014—2015年下滑趋势明显;油气资源开发潜力、经济环境、基础环境是最主要的影响因素,且地区特征明显,中东、中亚—俄罗斯地区油气资源潜力较大,基础环境优越,亚太地区经济优势明显;政治环境复杂多变,整体趋于不断恶化,经济环境和基础环境持续改善,俄罗斯、南美地区油气资源开发潜力不断提升,社会环境、法律法规及政策环境表现较为稳定。
[Abstract]:The oil and gas investment environment is evaluated based on seven single evaluation models. The compatibility of the model is tested by using fuzzy cluster analysis and Kendall coordination coefficient method, and the set of compatibility methods is determined. In order to eliminate the inconsistency between the evaluation results of different evaluation theories, the optimal weighted combination evaluation model of oil and gas investment environment is constructed. To improve the rationality of the evaluation results. Taking 40 major oil and gas producing countries of the five major oil and gas investment areas in China as the research object, Based on the evaluation model, the evolution of oil and gas investment environment and its influencing factors are studied by using the data from 2006 to 2015. The results show that the overall overseas oil and gas investment environment from 2006 to 2013 shows an upward trend, and the oil and gas resources development potential and economic environment are obvious in 2014-2015. The basic environment is the most important influencing factor, and the regional characteristics are obvious. The Middle East, Central Asia-Russia region has a great potential for oil and gas resources, the basic environment is superior, the Asia-Pacific region has obvious economic advantages, and the political environment is complex and changeable. The economic environment and basic environment of Russia and South America continue to improve, the potential of exploitation of oil and gas resources in Russia and South America continues to improve, and the social environment, laws and regulations and policy environment are relatively stable.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院;
【基金】：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2015GM005) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(17CX04024B)
【分类号】：F125;F426.22

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