社会融资规模作为货币政策中介目标的合理性研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 01:21

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：中介目标　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策的中介目标作为货币政策的重要组成部分,是货币政策传导机制中的重要环节。其优劣性与否,直接关系到货币政策能否有效地执行,宏观调控的最终目标能否得以实现。中介目标的选取一般是依据一国的国情和货币政策的最终目标来确定,我国货币政策中介目标的实施先后经历了若干个阶段。自1996年以来,货币政策的中介目标一直由货币供应量来充当,但随着金融改革的深化和发展、金融工具和产品的创新以及融资渠道的多元化发展,我国的经济金融环境发生了巨大的变化,货币供应量充当货币政策中介目标的适应性有所降低。正是在这种背景下,我国创新性地提出了社会融资规模这一概念。与货币供应量等宏观指标相比,社会融资规模涵盖了更多的经济信息,能够多层次多角度地反映实体经济发展与金融体系的关系,符合当前我国经济金融发展的客观要求。它的出现既有利于货币政策的制定和实施,又有利于宏观调控目标的实现,因此现阶段将社会融资规模确立为我国货币政策的中介目标是十分合理的。文章选取2002年-2013年社会融资规模、GDP以及CPI等宏观经济指标的季度数据作为样本数据,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的分析方法,并结合EVIEWS6.0等统计软件,从必要性和可行性两个角度,对社会融资规模作为货币政策中介目标是合理的这一命题进行了系统全面地论证,并提出了相关的建议。全文共由五个部分组成。第一部分主要是阐明本文的研究目的和意义,国内外学者相关的研究成果和现状以及本文的研究思路、方法和不足之处。第二部分主要是介绍货币政策中介目标的有关理论以及西方一些发达国家和我国在不同时期就货币政策中介目标选取方面的具体实践。第三和第四部分作为文章的核心内容主要是对社会融资规模作为货币政策中介目标的合理性进行论证,其中第三部分首先简要介绍了社会融资规模的发展历史、内涵以及统计原则,然后重点阐述了我国社会融资结构变化对货币政策造成的影响,并将社会融资规模同货币供应量、利率等指标进行了对比分析,得出将社会融资规模指标确立为我国货币政策的中介目标是十分必要的这一结论；第四部分主要是利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等计量经济学方法,针对社会融资规模的可测性、可控性以及相关性三个方面进行分析,分析结果表明社会融资规模具有明确的统计范围,央行能够综合利用各种货币政策的操作工具实现对社会融资规模的有效控制,另外社会融资规模和GDP、CPI等宏观经济指标存在稳定密切的联系,因而将其确立为货币政策中介目标是具有很强可行性的。第五部分,也就是最后一部分,主要是根据前文的分析得出结论并提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As an important part of monetary policy, the intermediate target of monetary policy is an important link in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Whether or not the ultimate goal of macro-control can be achieved. The selection of intermediate target is generally determined by the national conditions of a country and the ultimate goal of monetary policy. The implementation of intermediate target of monetary policy in China has experienced several stages successively. Since 1996, the intermediate target of monetary policy in China has undergone several stages. The intermediate target of monetary policy is always served by money supply. However, with the deepening and development of financial reform, the innovation of financial instruments and products and the diversification of financing channels, the economic and financial environment of our country has undergone tremendous changes. The adaptability of money supply to act as the intermediate target of monetary policy has been reduced. It is under this background that our country has put forward the concept of social financing scale innovatively. The scale of social financing covers more economic information and can reflect the relationship between the development of the real economy and the financial system in a multi-level and multi-angle way. In line with the objective requirements of the current economic and financial development in China, its appearance is not only conducive to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy, but also conducive to the realization of the goal of macro-control. Therefore, it is very reasonable to establish the social financing scale as the intermediate target of monetary policy. This paper selects the quarterly data of social financing scale and CPI as sample data from 2002 to 2013, and adopts the analytical method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, and combines with statistical software such as EVIEWS6.0, etc. From the point of view of necessity and feasibility, this paper systematically and comprehensively demonstrates the proposition that the scale of social financing is reasonable as the intermediate target of monetary policy, and puts forward some relevant suggestions. The first part is to clarify the purpose and significance of this paper, the research results and current situation of scholars at home and abroad, as well as the research ideas of this paper. The second part mainly introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy intermediary target and the specific practice of monetary policy intermediary target selection in some western developed countries and our country in different periods. The 4th part as the core content of the article is mainly to demonstrate the rationality of the social financing scale as the intermediate target of monetary policy. The third part briefly introduces the development history, connotation and statistical principle of the social financing scale, then expounds the influence of the social financing structure change on the monetary policy, and puts the social financing scale with the money supply. Based on the comparative analysis of interest rate and other indicators, this paper draws the conclusion that it is necessary to establish the social financing scale index as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. Part 4th mainly uses cointegration test. Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to analyze the measurability, controllability and correlation of social financing scale. The results show that the scale of social financing has a clear statistical scope, the central bank can comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to achieve effective control of the scale of social financing. In addition, there is a stable and close relationship between the scale of social financing and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP CPI, so it is very feasible to establish it as an intermediate target of monetary policy. Part 5th, that is, the last part, It is mainly based on the previous analysis to draw conclusions and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F124

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