中国GDP趋势周期分解及产出缺口价格效应的研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 01:06

本文选题：季度GDP　切入点：趋势周期分解　出处：《暨南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国经济发展逐步进入新常态,国内和国际环境变得更复杂,对我国经济的运行规律的研究显得尤为重要。本文首先总结了经济周期分解模型和产出缺口价格效应的相关文献,以及简略地归纳了经济周期理论的发展历史。在趋势周期分解模型中,注意到弹性傅立叶形式所具备的优点,本文使用了在URUC模型的基础上对趋势项加入了弹性傅立叶形式的FFF-UC对我国从1997Q1到2016Q3的GDP进行了趋势周期分解,并通过分别分析URUC和FFF-UC模型产出缺口的转折点和产出缺口对通货膨胀的预测能力,发现FFF-UC模型对于我国季度GDP的趋势周期分解具有一定的优势,所以本文选取了FFF-UC模型对我国GDP进行趋势周期分解。产出缺口的价格效应是指研究经济增长和物价稳定两大经济目标的关系,本文使用了FFF-UC模型分解得到的产出缺口,利用Gordon模型分别研究我国消费品和资本品的产出缺口效应。本文的研究发现:(1)在样本期间内,我国经历了九个经济周期,经济波动频繁,但从2010年以来周期波动的幅度有所减缓;从2016年第一季度开始处于经济周期的下行阶段。(2)消费品和资本品价格都具有正向的价格惯性。对于供给冲击方面的因素,相对于消费品价格来说,资本品价格对原油价格的变化更为敏感。产出缺口对消费品和资本品的价格效应存在一定的差异,从综合来看,资本品的价格对产出缺口更敏感。
[Abstract]:China's economic development has gradually entered the new normal, and the domestic and international environment has become more complex, so it is particularly important to study the law of economic operation in China. Firstly, this paper summarizes the economic cycle decomposition model and the relevant literature on the effect of output gap price. And briefly summarizes the history of the development of the business cycle theory. In the trend cycle decomposition model, the advantages of the elastic Fourier form are noted, In this paper, the trend periodic decomposition of GDP from 1997 Q1 to 2016Q3 in China is carried out by using the FFF-UC with elastic Fourier form on the basis of URUC model. By analyzing the turning point of output gap in URUC and FFF-UC models and the predictive ability of output gap to inflation, it is found that FFF-UC model has some advantages for the trend cycle decomposition of quarterly GDP in China. Therefore, this paper selects the FFF-UC model to decompose the trend cycle of GDP in China. The price effect of output gap is to study the relationship between economic growth and price stability. This paper uses the FFF-UC model to decompose the output gap. The Gordon model is used to study the output gap effect of consumer goods and capital goods in China. Since 2010, however, the range of cyclical fluctuations has slowed; since in the first quarter of 2016, the price of both consumer goods and capital goods has been in the downward phase of the economic cycle, and prices of both consumer goods and capital goods have positive price inertia. Compared with the price of consumer goods, the price of capital goods is more sensitive to the change of crude oil price, and the output gap has some difference on the price effect of consumer goods and capital goods, and the price of capital goods is more sensitive to the output gap.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.8

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