河南省终端用能部门低碳指标分析及工业碳排放影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 04:00

本文选题：低碳发展　切入点：终端用能部门　出处：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着工业化和城市化的快速发展，气候变化、环境污染、能源危机等问题日益突出，成为制约人类经济和社会发展的主要因素。为此，世界各国提出了许多应对措施，低碳经济应运而生。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和第一碳排放大国，我国所面临应对气候变化等问题的压力越来越大。因此，如何实现经济发展方式的转变成为亟待解决的问题。当前，河南省作为中原经济区的主体区域，经济正处于快速发展阶段，能源消费总量会继续增加，碳排放量也会随之增长。在这种形势下，正确处理经济与环境二者的关系，走低能耗、低污染、低排放的发展模式，具有十分重要的理论及现实意义。本文首先分析了河南省经济发展、能源消费和碳排放现状，说明河南省发展低碳经济的重要性和必要性。然后建立了宏观指标和终端部门能耗指标，分析河南省18个地级市低碳经济发展水平的差异，并且得出工业是影响河南省低碳经济发展最大的部门。在此基础上，计算了河南省工业分行业的碳排放量，并利用对数平均迪氏指数分解法（Logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI）对碳排放量高的行业的影响因素进行了深入分析。最后，结合各地市低碳经济发展水平和各行业的碳排放影响因素，有针对性地找出适合河南省低碳经济发展的路径。研究表明，第一，，河南省经济发展主要依靠工业拉动，第三产业发展水平落后。能源消耗总量增长过快，本省的能源生产量不能满足自身的发展，而且能源消费结构单一，主要以煤炭为主。这种能源消费形式导致碳排放量也快速增加。根据环境库兹涅茨曲线，河南省的碳排放总量还没有出现所谓的“拐点”，碳排放量还将持续增加。第二，无论宏观指标还是终端用能部门指标，都显示河南省18个地市低碳发展水平存在较大的差异。河南省低碳发展水平比较高的地区主要集中在黄河以南和西部地区；而低碳发展水平比较低的地区主要集中在西北地区，这种分布与河南省的工业经济分布格局相一致。对五个终端用能部门指标进行比较，发现工业是影响河南省低碳发展水平最大的因素。第三，利用LMDI因素分解法对河南省工业部门的碳排放影响因素进行分析，得出经济规模的变化对碳排放量增加贡献最大，因经济规模扩大导致碳排放增长量为26579.19万吨，占碳排放总增长量的99.65%。而工业内部结构变化则是减少河南省工业碳排放的最主要因素，减少碳排放7340.09万吨。工业能源结构调整对河南省工业碳排放变化影响很小，这说明河南省能源消费结构还需进一步优化。河南省碳排放量大的行业主要有煤炭开采、石油加工、化学原料制造、电力、黑色金属和有色金属，都是国民经济中的高耗能行业。第四，要实现河南省低碳经济的发展，应从调整产业结构、实施低碳技术等方面着手。在发展河南省总体低碳经济的同时，结合各地市地方的特色，协同发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, the problems of climate change, environmental pollution and energy crisis become increasingly prominent and become the main factors restricting the economic and social development of human beings. Low-carbon economy emerges as the times require. As the largest developing country and the largest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing more and more pressure to deal with climate change and other problems. How to realize the transformation of economic development mode becomes an urgent problem to be solved. At present, Henan Province, as the main area of the Central Plains Economic Zone, is in the stage of rapid economic development, and the total amount of energy consumption will continue to increase. In this situation, correctly dealing with the relationship between economy and environment, low energy consumption, low pollution, low emission has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first analyzes the economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission status of Henan Province, explains the importance and necessity of developing a low-carbon economy in Henan Province, and then establishes a macro index and an energy consumption index for the end sector. This paper analyzes the differences in the development level of low-carbon economy in 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province, and draws the conclusion that industry is the most important sector affecting the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. On this basis, the carbon emissions from industrial subsectors in Henan Province are calculated. And the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) is used to analyze the influencing factors of the industries with high carbon emissions. Finally, combining with the development level of low-carbon economy in various cities and cities and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in various industries, To find out the appropriate path for the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. The results show that, first, the economic development of Henan Province mainly depends on the industrial development, the tertiary industry development level is backward, the total energy consumption is increasing too fast, the energy production of the province can not meet its own development, and the energy consumption structure is single. Mainly coal. This form of energy consumption leads to a rapid increase in carbon emissions. According to the environmental Kuznets curve, the total amount of carbon emissions in Henan Province has not yet appeared a so-called "inflection point," and carbon emissions will continue to increase. Second, Both macroscopical indicators and end-use energy sector indicators show that there are great differences in the low carbon development level of 18 cities in Henan Province. The regions with high low-carbon development level are mainly concentrated in the south and west of the Yellow River. However, the low level of low-carbon development is mainly concentrated in the northwest region, which is consistent with the distribution pattern of industrial economy in Henan Province. The five end-use energy sector indicators are compared. It is found that industry is the most important factor affecting the low carbon development level in Henan Province. Thirdly, the factors affecting carbon emissions in Henan industrial sector are analyzed by using LMDI factorization method, and it is concluded that the change of economic scale contributes the most to the increase of carbon emissions. The increase in carbon emissions due to the expansion of the economic scale is two hundred and sixty-five million seven hundred and ninety-one thousand and nine hundred tons, accounting for 99.65 percent of the total increase in carbon emissions. Changes in industrial internal structure are the most important factors in reducing industrial carbon emissions in Henan Province. Reducing carbon emissions by seventy-three million four hundred thousand and nine hundred tons. The adjustment of industrial energy structure has little effect on the change of industrial carbon emissions in Henan Province, which indicates that the energy consumption structure of Henan Province needs to be further optimized. The major industries with large carbon emissions in Henan Province are coal mining and petroleum processing. Chemical raw materials manufacturing, electric power, ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals are all high energy consuming industries in the national economy. 4th, in order to achieve the development of a low-carbon economy in Henan Province, the industrial structure should be adjusted. The implementation of low-carbon technology and other aspects of the development of the overall low-carbon economy in Henan Province at the same time, combined with the local characteristics of various cities, coordinated development.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;X322

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