中部省域城市首位度与经济增长的模型、机理及对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 07:45

本文选题：中部省域　切入点：城市首位度　出处：《南昌大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：区域经济学中，城市首位度是关于城市规模分布的重要理论，特别是对于大城市在区域发展中的地位，首位度是较为权威的衡量标准。而区域经济发展过程中，随着工业化进程的不断提升，一种重要的城市化现象是以首位城市、中心城市为带动的发展道路，由首位城市为核心的城市群作为区域发展的重要载体，凭借其集聚效应和辐射作用，来推动区域经济快速增长。基于上述两点，进一步深入到我国区域发展进程中，一种城市化差异现象值得关注：东部发达地区的各省域内一般都存在着两个发展水平相近的城市，即存在一个在规模、实力等方面均可同省会城市相互竞争、相互协调的副中心城市，而中部地区发展的各省域则普遍呈现出省会城市独大的局面，各省域中几乎没有次级城市可同省会发展相提并论，而中部区域的发展水平同东部地区相比依然存在一定的差距。那么，这种城市结构的差异同经济发展水平之间是否存在必然的联系？对此，以中部各省域为研究范围，以城市首位度同区域经济增长的关系为研究对象，探索二者之间的作用机理，并提出科学、高效的城市发展对策。根据上述研究视角和研究思路，本研究的主要内容和成果有以下几个方面：第一，奠定研究的理论基础。系统梳理了有关城市首位度的国内外研究理论、现有的研究成果，并重点对中心城市、城市结构体系等的相关理论进行了综述和总结，同时选取了中部地区的部分城市发展相关文献进行了评述，现有的相关文献表明，专门研究城市首位度同经济增长的文献较少，并仅将首位度作为一种研究工具，，并未深入到经济因素的深层次中，以至于对其最优规模的探讨甚少，这也是本研究的重要突破口。第二，首位城市现状分析。利用竞争力的一般评价模型，通过建立中部省域首位城市的竞争力评价指标体系，对各首位城市当前的发展实力进行比较，运用因子分析方法，对中部省域首位城市发展实力进行了排名，结果显示，武汉和长沙的城市实力最强，其次为郑州、合肥和南昌，太原则相对较弱。同时，总结出中部省域首位城市当前面临的突出问题，如产业协调和区域合作程度较低、职能分工不明确、生态环境威胁严重等。第三，城市首位度变化规律。通过建立中部省域人口首位度和经济增长首位度的时间序列方程，对比于现实的经济发展情况，发现中部省域首位度同经济增长并不完全符合“威廉姆森—汉森假说”中的倒“U”型曲线，进而对该理论进行了补充和完善，即认为其存在一种静态性的假设条件，可视为区域经济理论中的一种长期的发展规律，首位度的发展变化更多的是由内在资源配置效率趋同的规律所支配。第四，城市首位度与经济增长的关系。首先解决了城市首位度同经济增长关系的存在性问题，通过因果关系检验，证实中部省域的城市首位度的确是经济增长的原因之一，且更多地体现在对人均GDP的影响上，人力资本的集聚依然推动经济增长；由于城市首位度的经济贡献存在滞后，中部欠发达地区仍需要对资源进行合理配置、对技术消化吸收，适当地提高集聚规模实现经济快速增长。其次分析了首位度与经济增长关系的趋势性，以简单线性图标识出中部省域二者之间的相互关系，形成中部省域的“威廉姆森曲线”（水平“S”型、倒“U”型或单调增长型），探索性地分析出二者在中期发展阶段内的关系趋势。第五，城市首位度最优规模。结合区域经济增长的其他因素，构建包括城市首位度在内的区域经济增长模型，通过阈值回归分析方法，得出各省域城市首位度的最优规模值。研究结果找出了部分省域的最优值，不存在阈值的湖北、湖南两省表明其首位城市对经济增长的作用平稳，无明显波动，河南、安徽两省需要进一步优化城市布局结构，江西和山西在最优规模上均具有较高值，体现出经济欠发达地区的首位型城市集聚特征仍是不断增强的，从另一个方面也证实江西实施“打造南昌核心增长极”的政策取得一定成效。同时，首位度作为经济因素进行研究的局限性也有所体现。第六，区域经济增长的效率。为明确未来中部省域在城市集聚的重点内容，以资源配置效率为研究对象，分析中部省域在经济投入要素上的利用程度，总结其配置效率的高低，得出中部省域普遍处于规模效益递增阶段，生产要素和生产效率均可进一步提升经济增长速度，同时人口（劳动力）要素的数量提升对经济增长效率显然较低。首位城市发展要改变传统人口、规模简单扩张的理念，以广义的人力资本概念为准，通过技术创新等实现全要素生产率，规模的有效提升要依靠人力、资本和技术的综合集中以及资源的有效利用、高效配置。第七，首位城市同区域经济增长的机理。重点研究中部省域首位城市发展同经济增长之间的内在关系与机制，根据首位城市所具有的区域集聚功能、辐射功能，总结出首位城市在区域经济发展过程中的动力机理、传递机理和协调机理。分别运用传统定性分析中的要素机理关系图和系统动力学中的成长上限基模、富者愈富基模以及“恶性竞争”基模，建立了首位度对经济增长的作用机理模型，较系统地描述了首位城市在区域发展中各要素的相互作用关系，针对中部省域首位城市，提出了产业对接、政策协调、互联互通、生态保护和城市服务五个方面的科学发展机制。第八，综合实证和机理的研究结论，在总结发达地区首位城市发展经验的基础上，提出中部首位城市未来发展的对策体系，重点优化城市布局、推进产城融合、推动城乡一体化、完善城市服务体系和创新体系、加强生态环境保护，以及建设跨省域城市群，由此明确了中部省域首位城市的重点建设和改革内容。综上，通过探究城市首位度同经济增长之间的关系，从理论和实证两个方面的研究，系统阐述了中部省域首位城市在区域经济中的发展状态和规律，比较分析了各省域的异同点，形成了研究视角和研究观点的创新，丰富并完善了区域经济中的城市群理论和城市规模理论，试图对城市发展理论做出深度和广度的延伸；同时希望可以给中部省域内首位城市与外围城市之间的协调发展提供一种思路，以促进中部地区城市群建设水平的提升，走出中部省域各具特色的城市化发展道路。
[Abstract]:In regional economics, city primacy is about the important theory of city size distribution, especially for the status of city in the regional development, the first is the authoritative standard. But in the process of regional economic development, with the development of industrialization of continuous improvement, an important phenomenon is the first city to city center. City development driven by the first city, as the core of the city agglomeration as an important carrier of regional development, with its agglomeration effect and radiation effect, to promote the rapid growth of the regional economy. Based on the above two points, further to China's regional development process, a city difference phenomenon worthy of attention: the provincial the eastern region in general there are two close to the level of development of the city, there is one on the scale, strength and other aspects can be with the capital city of mutual competition, mutual coordination of vice The center of the city, and the development of the central region of the provincial capital city are generally showing a dominant situation, the provincial almost no secondary city can be compared with the development of the capital, and the development level of the central region compared with the eastern region still exists a certain gap. So, whether there is a causal link between the difference of the structure of the same city the level of economic development in the central provinces? In this regard, the scope of the study, the relationship between degree of the first city with regional economic growth as the research object, to explore the mechanism between the two, and put forward the scientific and efficient city development strategies.
According to the above research perspective and research ideas, the main contents and results of this study are as follows:
First, lay a theoretical foundation for the study. Systematically reviews the theory about the degree of the first city at home and abroad, the existing research results, and focus on the center of the city, and also reviews the related theory of city structure system, and selected the city central area of the development of relevant literatures were reviewed, the existing literature the research shows that special city of the first degree of economic growth with little literature, and only the first degree as a research tool, not deep into the deep economic factors, so that to explore the optimal scale is very little, which is an important breakthrough in this research.
Second, analysis of the status quo. The first city general evaluation model based on competitiveness, through the establishment of the central provincial first city competitiveness evaluation index system, comparing the current development strength of each city first, using the method of factor analysis, the central provincial city first development strength were ranked and the results show that the city of Wuhan and Changsha the strongest, followed by Zhengzhou, Hefei and Nanchang, Taiyuan is relatively weak. At the same time, summed up the problems of the central provincial city first confronted with, such as industrial coordination and regional cooperation degree is low, not clear division of functions, ecological environment and serious threat.
Third, law of the primate city change. By establishing the time series equation of central provincial population and economic growth in the first degree of economic development, in contrast to the reality of the central provincial first degree with economic growth does not fully comply with the "Williamson Hansen hypothesis" inverted "U" curve, and the theory of supplement and perfect, that the assumption of a static characteristic, can be regarded as a long-term development of regional economic theory, the development and change of the first degree is governed by more internal resources allocation efficiency of convergence of the law.
Fourth, the relationship between city primacy and economic growth. The first solution to the city's first degree of the relationship between economic growth and the existence of the problem, through the Granger causality test, confirmed the central provincial city of the first degree is one of the causes of economic growth, and more reflected in the impact on the per capita GDP, the concentration of human capital is still to promote economic growth; the economic contribution degree of the first city lags behind, the underdeveloped areas in Central China still needs the rational allocation of resources, the absorption of technology digestion, properly increasing the agglomeration scale to achieve rapid economic growth. Then analyzes the trend of the relationship between the first degree and economic growth, the relationship between a simple linear labelling of the the province of the two, the Williamson curve to form the central provincial "(the" S "type, inverted" U "type or monotonic growth), exploratory analysis of the two in the middle The relationship trend in the stage of development.
Fifth, city primacy optimal scale. Other factors combined with regional economic growth, regional economic growth model including the city of the first degree, by threshold regression analysis method, the optimal size of the provincial city of the first degree value. The research results and find the best part of provincial values, there is no threshold for the Hubei, Hunan two the province shows that the first city on the role of economic growth is stable, no significant fluctuations, Henan, Anhui two provinces need to further optimize the structure of the layout of the city, Jiangxi and Shanxi are in the optimal scale has high value, reflecting the first city in underdeveloped areas is still increasing agglomeration characteristics, on the other hand also confirmed Jiangxi implementation of the "Nanchang to build the core growth pole" policy has achieved certain effect. At the same time, the limitations of the first degree as economic factors studied are also reflected.
Sixth, the efficiency of regional economic growth. As a clear future middle area is the key content in the city agglomeration, the efficiency of resource allocation as the research object, analysis of the central province in the domain of economic input factors on the degree of utilization, summarizes its allocation efficiency, the central provinces are generally at the stage of increasing returns to scale, production factors and production efficiency can further enhance the speed of economic growth, and the population (labor force) the number of elements to enhance the efficiency of economic growth is lower. The first to change the traditional development of city population, the size of a simple expansion of the concept of generalized to the concept of human capital as the standard, through technological innovation to achieve the total factor productivity, effectively enhance the scale to rely on human comprehensive, effective use of capital and technology intensive and efficient allocation of resources.
Seventh, the mechanism of the first city with regional economic growth. Focus on the central provincial city first development internal relations and mechanism between economic growth and agglomeration according to the function, the first city of the regional radiation function, summed up the first city development dynamic mechanism in the process of regional economy, transfer mechanism and coordination mechanism respectively. Using the upper growth limit base model diagram and system dynamics mechanism of elements in the traditional qualitative analysis, getting richer model and "vicious competition" model, establishes a model of the first degree on economic growth mechanism, systematically describes the interaction between the various elements of the first city in the regional development in the middle. The first provincial city, put forward industrial docking, policy coordination, interoperability, scientific development mechanism of the five aspects of ecological protection and city services.
Eighth, conclusion and empirical mechanism, based on the summary of the first city development experience of developed areas, put forward the countermeasure system of the future development of the city central first, focus on optimizing the layout of the city, to promote the integration of city and promote the integration of urban and rural areas, improve the city service system and innovation system, strengthen the protection of the ecological environment, and the construction of inter provincial domain city group, a clear focus on the construction and reformation of the central provincial first city.
In summary, through exploring the relationship between city primacy and economic growth from two aspects of theory and empirical research, the system elaborated in the regional economic development in the central provincial city and the first state law, a comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between the provincial, the formation of innovative research perspective and research ideas, enrich and perfect the regional economy in city group theory and city scale theory, trying to make extension of the depth and breadth of the city development theory; at the same time, I hope to provide a way to coordinate development between city and peripheral city first middle domain, in order to promote the construction of city groups in the central area to enhance the level of development of the central city road out of provincial characteristic.

【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

【参考文献】