我国产业结构变迁对城镇化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 13:40

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：产业结构　出处：《重庆工商大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球经济放缓的形势下，我国经济发展将更多地依靠内需，而城镇化正是我国扩大内需的巨大潜力所在。城镇化发展离不开产业的支撑，产业结构也影响着城镇化的速度与质量。当前我国城镇化处于加速发展阶段，产业结构也正经历重大变革，在此背景下研究产业结构变迁对城镇化的影响具有重要意义。本文试图探究产业结构合理化与高度化对城镇化的影响，以促进城镇化的健康发展。首先，在梳理国内外城镇化相关理论的基础上，从产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化两个角度出发，构建了产业结构变迁对城镇化影响的理论框架。然后，基于2000-2012年省级面板数据，对产业结构合理化、高度化对城镇化影响进行了实证分析；为了进一步分析城镇化不同发展阶段中，合理化与高度化对城镇化影响的变化情况，，采用了面板分位数回归模型进行分析。实证主要得到以下几点结论：（1）产业结构合理化指数与城镇化率呈显著负相关，表明产业结构的合理化对城镇化发展起促进作用。但是随着城镇化率的提高，这种促进作用整体上呈下降状态。（2）产业结构高度化指数，当采用非农产值比重表示时，对城镇化率起正向影响；当采用经济服务化程度指标时，对城镇化率起负面影响。表明非农产业的发展有助于推进城镇化，而现阶段仍是第二产业对城镇化起主导作用，第三产业的巨大潜力尚未完全发挥。在城镇化率不断提高的过程中，产业结构高度化的贡献率呈现先下降、回升、再下降、再上升的过程，近似呈现“W”型的态势。（3）控制变量中人均实际GDP、外商直接投资对城镇化率呈现正相关，表明随着经济发展的提高、地区开放程度的增加，地区城镇化率越高；而政府财政支出对城镇化率的影响系数较小，且未能通过显著性检验。随着城镇化率的提高，经济发展水平的正向促进作用进不断增强，而外商直接投资的正向促进作用呈下降趋势。最后，基于实证结论，并结合实际，对我国城镇化建设提出了部分对策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of global economic slowdown, China's economic development will depend more on domestic demand, and urbanization is the great potential of expanding domestic demand in China. Urbanization cannot develop without the support of industry. The industrial structure also affects the speed and quality of urbanization. At present, China's urbanization is in an accelerated stage of development, and the industrial structure is also undergoing major changes. In this context, it is of great significance to study the impact of industrial structure changes on urbanization. This paper attempts to explore the impact of rationalization and elevation of industrial structure on urbanization in order to promote the healthy development of urbanization. First of all, on the basis of combing the related theories of urbanization at home and abroad, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the influence of industrial structure change on urbanization from the two angles of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure elevation. Then, based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the rationalization of industrial structure and the impact of high level urbanization on urbanization; in order to further analyze the different stages of urbanization, The effect of rationalization and elevation on urbanization is analyzed by panel quantile regression model. The empirical results are as follows:. 1) there is a significant negative correlation between the rationalization index of industrial structure and the urbanization rate, which indicates that the rationalization of industrial structure promotes the development of urbanization, but with the increase of urbanization rate, the promoting effect is in a state of decline as a whole. (2) the high index of industrial structure has a positive effect on the urbanization rate when it is expressed by the proportion of non-agricultural output value, and when the index of economic service degree is adopted, It has a negative impact on the urbanization rate. It shows that the development of non-agricultural industries is conducive to promoting urbanization, while at this stage it is the secondary industry that still plays a leading role in urbanization. The great potential of the tertiary industry has not been fully realized. In the process of increasing the urbanization rate, the contribution rate of the industrial structure to high level first decreases, rebounds, then declines, then rises, and then rises, approximately showing a "W" pattern. 3) the actual GDP per capita and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the control variables are positively correlated with the urbanization rate, indicating that with the increase of economic development and the increase of regional opening degree, the higher the regional urbanization rate is; However, the influence coefficient of government expenditure on urbanization rate is small, and it fails to pass the significance test. With the increase of urbanization rate, the positive promoting effect of economic development level is increasing. The positive promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) shows a downward trend. Finally, based on the empirical conclusions and combined with the actual situation, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for China's urbanization construction.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F299.21

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