E-DSGE模型构建及我国碳减排政策效应测度

发布时间：2018-03-10 07:27

  本文选题：DSGE模型　切入点：环境政策效应　出处：《商业经济与管理》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：经济与环境的交互作用机制具有复杂的动态不确定性,因此基于历史数据提出的环境政策存在社会试错成本,需要政策效应的事前检验。文章基于国外经典模型的改进,引入环境因素处理技术,构建相应E-DSGE模型框架;通过环境参数校准与贝叶斯估计形成数据模拟平台,给出我国碳减排政策效应的仿真测度。发现环境政策对我国经济系统稳定性没有产生特别强烈的负面冲击,但目前经济基本面尚难以承受高减排目标,以及不同减排政策存在较大区分度等信息;进而得到通过逐步加快碳减排,并以相应政策作为供给侧结构性改革工具,实现经济结构调整与碳减排推进互动的政策空间。该研究也可为我国DSGE模型研究提供参考。
[Abstract]:The interaction mechanism between economy and environment has complex dynamic uncertainty, so the environmental policy based on historical data has social trial and error cost, which needs to be tested in advance. The E-DSGE model framework is constructed by introducing the environmental factor processing technology, and the data simulation platform is formed by the calibration of environmental parameters and Bayesian estimation. The results show that the environmental policy has not had a particularly strong negative impact on the stability of China's economic system, but the current economic fundamentals are still difficult to withstand high emission reduction targets. As well as different emission reduction policies and other information such as greater differentiation; and then through the gradual acceleration of carbon emissions reduction, and the corresponding policies as a supply-side structural reform tool, The policy space to realize the interaction between economic restructuring and carbon emission reduction. This study can also provide a reference for the study of DSGE model in China.
【作者单位】： 河南大学经济学院;天津财经大学理工学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国税收改革政策宏观效果的统计测度与评价研究”(15BTJ010) 教育部基地重大项目“经济政策宏观作用机制数量模拟理论方法及其应用研究”(13JJD790018)
【分类号】：F124;X321
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本文编号：1592331