中国突破中等收入陷阱的经济学分析

发布时间：2018-03-10 09:00

本文选题：中等收入陷阱　切入点：发展中国家　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究目标:探讨发展中国家落入"中等收入陷阱"的经济学原因。研究方法:在对"中等收入陷阱"进行经济学理论分析基础上,用48个国家面板数据样本,进行经济减速和经济增长因素实证分析。研究发现:消费比重过高,外部负债和资本过度跨国流动不利于经济增长,特别是对中等收入国家经济增长更不利;国民收支内部失衡及其引发的外部失衡,特别是高消费导致内部失衡而引发外贸逆差和外部债务积累,是发展中国家落入"中等收入陷阱"的根源。研究创新:论述了发展中国家高消费引发"中等收入陷阱"的机理,并进行了实证检验。研究价值:有利于客观认识国内经济减速,把握好内需拉动经济增长和资本项目开放的"度",避免追求持续高增长而出现宏观政策失误。
[Abstract]:Research objective: to explore the economic causes of developing countries falling into the "middle-income trap". Research methods: based on the economic theory analysis of the "middle-income trap", 48 country panel data samples are used. Empirical analysis of economic slowdown and economic growth factors. The study found that: the proportion of consumption is too high, external debt and excessive transnational capital flow is not conducive to economic growth, especially for middle-income countries; The internal imbalance of national income and expenditure and the external imbalance caused by it, especially the internal imbalance caused by high consumption lead to the accumulation of foreign trade deficit and external debt, It is the root of developing countries falling into the "middle-income trap". Research and Innovation: discusses the Mechanism of "Middle-Income Trap" caused by High consumption in developing countries, The research value is helpful to understand the domestic economic deceleration, grasp the "degree" of domestic demand to promote economic growth and open capital account, and avoid the macro policy mistakes in pursuit of sustained high growth.
【作者单位】：上海立信会计金融学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“上海自贸区试点人民币资本项目开放与风险防范研究”(14BJY178)的资助
【分类号】：F124.7

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