城乡收入差距对居民消费需求影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 21:46

本文选题：城乡居民收入差距　切入点：居民消费需求　出处：《辽宁大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自十一届三中全会改革开放以来,我国国民经济展现出一幅新的蓝图,在1978年至2015年这37年间,人均GDP从96美元增长到了8016美元,增长达82.5倍。我国经济增长水平的提高是显而易见和令人瞩目的,但是同时还应当看到,我国城乡收入差距日渐加剧,远远超越了国际上规定的合理的边界。观察世界各国经济案例中可以发现,虽然在经济加速时,有拉大收入差距的可能性和潜在性,但是过度膨胀的居民收入差距必然会危害一个经济体的健康和可持续发展。本文在凯恩斯的收入—消费假说的基础上,利用Eviews计量软件得到了居民消费率关于城乡居民收入差距的一般长期均衡函数,推导出了城乡间居民收入差距对居民消费支出的影响和反馈机制。同时,利用得出的协整方程就二者间的影响反馈作用进行了统计和实证分析,分析结果认为城乡收入差距对居民消费需求的负向作用显著：城乡居民收入差距(Lsrb)每变动1个单位,全国居民消费率(Lxfl)将会反向变动2.0555个单位；另外,城市化率的进一步扩大也会在一定程度上降低全国居民消费率,即城市化指标每变动1个百分点,居民消费率就会反向0.6489个百分点；而经济增长对提高居民消费率有一定程度的带动作用,即人均GDP每变动1个百分点,居民的消费率将会同向变动0.2674个百分点。从目前的国际形势来看,消费需求不仅仅是一国经济发展的指标和源动力,更是一国在国际舞台上占有重要地位的关键砝码。在十三个五年规划的重要实行期和我国经济重要转型期,尤其更要注重合理利用居民消费,让其在我国经济稳步发展的进程中发挥核心作用。而考虑到城乡收入差距对居民消费需求的固有的阻碍作用,因此如果想要依靠缩小收入差距来起到激励居民消费需求的作用,就需要综合考虑多方面因素,积极发挥多个主体的作用,政府也要积极利用各种财政政策和产业政策,合理对国民收入进行规划和再分配,发挥社会福利和社会保障制度应有的作用,尤其要注意提高农民居民的到手收入。只有做到这些,居民消费需求的能力和层次才会提升到更高阶段,经济稳增长和消费需求稳步提升也才能步入到一个互补、协同的发展阶段。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up of the third Plenary session of the Eleventh Central Committee, China's national economy has shown a new blueprint. During the 37 years from 1978 to 2015, the per capita GDP increased from US $96 to US $8, 016. The increase in China's economic growth level is obvious and remarkable, but at the same time, we should also see that the income gap between urban and rural areas in our country is increasing day by day. Far beyond the reasonable boundaries set by the international community. Looking at the economic cases of countries around the world, we can see that, although there is the possibility and the potential to widen the income gap when the economy accelerates, However, the overinflated income gap will inevitably endanger the health and sustainable development of an economy. The general long-term equilibrium function of resident consumption rate on income gap between urban and rural residents is obtained by using Eviews software, and the influence and feedback mechanism of income gap between urban and rural residents on residents' consumption expenditure are deduced. By using the cointegration equation, the influence feedback between them is analyzed statistically and empirically. The results show that the negative effect of urban-rural income gap on residents' consumption demand is significant: the income gap between urban and rural residents changes by 1 unit per unit. In addition, the further expansion of the urbanization rate will, to a certain extent, reduce the national consumption rate, that is, every 1 percentage point change in the urbanization index. The resident consumption rate will be reversed by 0.6489 percentage points, and economic growth will have a certain degree of driving effect on raising the resident consumption rate, that is, for every 1 percentage point change in per capita GDP, The consumption rate of the residents will change by 0.2674 percentage points. Judging from the current international situation, consumer demand is not only an indicator and a source of power for a country's economic development. It is also the key weight for a country to occupy an important position on the international stage. During the important implementation period of the thirteen year plan and the important transition period of our economy, we should pay more attention to the rational utilization of residents' consumption. Let it play a central role in the steady economic development of our country. Considering the inherent hindrance of the urban-rural income gap to the consumption demand of the residents, so if we want to rely on narrowing the income gap to play a role in stimulating the consumption demand of the residents, It is necessary to comprehensively consider various factors and actively play the role of many main bodies. The government should also actively utilize various fiscal and industrial policies to rationally plan and redistribute national income. Give play to the role that the social welfare and social security system should have, and pay special attention to raising the income of the peasants. Only by doing so can the ability and level of consumption demand of the residents be raised to a higher stage. Stable economic growth and steady growth of consumer demand can also step into a complementary, coordinated development stage.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.7;F126.1

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