我国产业结构调整与就业结构的预测分析

发布时间：2018-03-12 12:38

本文选题：产业结构　切入点：就业结构　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：就业问题是近年来的社会热点问题，其是一个综合的、多准则的、多因素的复杂问题。伴随着我国经济体制的改革，产业结构也在不断的调整与变化。产业结构调整对就业的影响也得到越来越多学者的关注。早在17世纪末，英国古典经济学威廉·配第就提出劳动力会从农业向制造业和商业转移。1978年以来，我国的产业结构不断向着合理的方向发展，就业结构也随之进行着优化调整。通过对我国产业结构与就业结构发展的梳理，考察了其发展的特征，分析了我国产业机构与就业结构发展的一般规律。进一步通过结构偏离度分析、就业弹性指数分析等分析方法，得到以下结论：我国产业结构正朝向合理化的趋势发展，整体上三次产业的结构偏离度逐步缩小，第三产业比重逐步提高，但仍处于发展初期；在三次产业吸纳就业能力发面，第三产业对就业的吸纳能力更强，就业弹性指数最大，并且呈上升趋势。所以，大力发展第三产业是解决就业问题的有效突破口。利用灰色系统理论等相关理论基础，构建了我国产业结构与就业结构调整的动态预测模型，，并结合1978年以来我国产业结构与就业结构的相关数据进行了模拟，对未来我国产业结构与就业结构调整进行了预测，并对结果进行了分析。根据预测，2015年，我国第三产业在国内生产总值比重将首次超过50%，其就业结构比重将超过40%。预测结果与前文理论分析结果相吻合。此方法具有科学合理，排序明确且原理直观、计算简便易掌握等特点，便于推广普及。最后，对解决就业问题提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The employment problem is a hot social issue in recent years. It is a complex problem with comprehensive, multi-criteria and multi-factors. It is accompanied by the reform of China's economic system. The industrial structure is also constantly adjusting and changing. More and more scholars pay attention to the influence of industrial structure adjustment on employment. As early as the end of 17th century, William Petty of British classical economics proposed that the labor force would be transferred from agriculture to manufacturing and commerce. Since 1978, the industrial structure of our country has been developing in a reasonable direction. The employment structure has been optimized and adjusted. By combing the development of industrial structure and employment structure in China, the characteristics of its development are investigated. This paper analyzes the general law of the development of industrial organization and employment structure in China. Through the analysis of the deviation degree of structure and the analysis of employment elasticity index, the following conclusions are drawn: the industrial structure of our country is developing towards the trend of rationalization. On the whole, the structural deviation of the three industries has gradually decreased, the proportion of the tertiary industry has gradually increased, but it is still in the early stages of development. In the three industries, the ability to absorb employment is growing, and the tertiary industry has a stronger ability to absorb employment, and the employment elasticity index is the largest. Therefore, vigorously developing the tertiary industry is an effective breakthrough to solve the employment problem. Based on the grey system theory and other related theories, the dynamic prediction model of industrial structure and employment structure adjustment in China is constructed. Combining with the relevant data of industrial structure and employment structure since 1978, this paper forecasts the future adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure in China, and analyzes the results. The proportion of China's tertiary industry in GDP will exceed 50 for the first time, and the proportion of employment structure will exceed 40. The predicted results are in agreement with the results of the previous theoretical analysis. This method is scientific and reasonable, and the order is clear and the principle is intuitionistic. The calculation is simple and easy to grasp, which is easy to popularize. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to solve the problem of employment.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.2

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