基于生态足迹模型的永泰县可持续发展评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 05:00

本文选题：永泰县　切入点：生态足迹模型　出处：《福建农林大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：县级区域是我国基本的行政单位,是影响我国可持续发展战略实施的关键所在,因此,加强对县级区域开展可持续发展评价研究十分重要。永泰县作为国家级生态县,在经济社会发展的同时,使得其与自然环境之间的矛盾日趋严峻,走可持续发展的道路已经成为永泰县的必然选择。生态足迹模型作为可持续发展的一种评价方法,因其具有定量化的优势,使其在众多可持续发展的研究方法中凸显出来。本文在研究国内外相关文献的基础上,建立生态足迹模型对永泰县可持续发展进行定量评估,研究结果可以作为永泰县制定可持续发展战略的科学依据。首先将永泰县作为研究区域,对其自然、社会和经济方面的现状进行分析。其次,主要通过2006-2015年《永泰县统计年鉴》以及联合国粮农组织(FAO)收集生态足迹计算所需相关的数据,对永泰县2005-2014年生态足迹进行实证分析,结果显示：永泰县的人均生态足迹变化趋势处于不稳定的状态,大体上还是呈上升趋势,其中,以牧草地人均生态足迹构成最为突出,占比量达到39%；人均生态承载力呈缓慢减少趋势,其中,可耕地和林地比重最大,分别达到41%和55%；生态状况都处于生态赤字,而且在总体上有扩大的趋势,2014年生态赤字几乎为2005的3.6倍,其中,牧草地赤字最为严重。可以看出,当前永泰县的生态已经处于不可持续状态。在此基础上,利用回归预测模型对永泰县2015-2020年发展趋势进行预测,预测结果显示为生态赤字状态,且呈下降趋势,说明永泰县未来发展状况不容乐观。再者,以生态足迹计算结果为基础,利用可持续发展相关指标进行定量计算分析,结果显示：永泰县的资源和能源的利用率在逐步得到提高；生物多样性和发展能力在逐渐上升；但是生态安全状况已经达到较不安全等级(4级),生态压力指数不断上升。然后,从中国可持续发展评价等级表可以得知永泰县在2005-2014年处于弱不可持续状态,且弱不可持续状态在不断加强,与生态足迹模型定量研究的结果相吻合,说明测算结果具有可信度。最后,综合得出影响永泰县可持续发展能力的主要因素可以归纳为：生态需求、生态供给、土地分配合理性、科学技术、人口以及人均收入。针对以上几个方面,提出符合永泰县可持续发展的政策建议,主要包括：保护原有土地,提高土地利用率；发展科学技术,提高能源使用效率；提高人口素质,实施生态环境教育；优化产业结构,转变经济发展模式。
[Abstract]:County area is the basic administrative unit of our country and the key to the implementation of sustainable development strategy of our country. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen the research on the evaluation of sustainable development in county-level region. At the same time of economic and social development, the contradiction between it and the natural environment is becoming more and more severe. The sustainable development has become the inevitable choice of Yongtai County. The ecological footprint model is a kind of evaluation method of sustainable development. Because of its quantitative advantages, it is prominent in many sustainable development research methods. Based on the study of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper establishes an ecological footprint model for quantitative evaluation of sustainable development in Yongtai County. The results of the study can be used as the scientific basis for the formulation of sustainable development strategy in Yongtai County. Firstly, Yongtai County is regarded as the research area to analyze its natural, social and economic situation. Secondly, Mainly through the "Yongtai County Statistical Yearbook" from 2006 to 2015 and FAO / FAO) to collect the relevant data needed to calculate the ecological footprint, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the ecological footprint of Yongtai County from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint of Yongtai County is in an unstable state, and it is on the whole on the rise, among which, the per capita ecological footprint of pasture land is the most prominent. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is decreasing slowly, of which the proportion of arable land and forest land is the largest, reaching 41% and 55 respectively. The ecological situation is in an ecological deficit. In 2014, the ecological deficit was almost 3.6 times that of 2005, among which the pasture land deficit was the most serious. It can be seen that the ecology of Yongtai County is now in an unsustainable state. On this basis, The regression prediction model is used to forecast the development trend of Yongtai County in 2015-2020. The forecast results show that the ecological deficit is in a state of decline, which indicates that the future development of Yongtai County is not optimistic. Furthermore, based on the results of ecological footprint calculation, the future development of Yongtai County is not optimistic. The results show that the utilization rate of resources and energy in Yongtai County is increasing gradually, and the biodiversity and development capacity are increasing gradually. However, the ecological security situation has reached level 4 of the less safe level and the ecological pressure index has been rising. Then, from the evaluation level table of sustainable development in China, we can see that Yongtai County was in a weak unsustainable state from 2005 to 2014. And the weak unsustainable state is strengthening constantly, which coincides with the results of the quantitative study of ecological footprint model, which shows that the calculation results are reliable. The main factors affecting the sustainable development ability of Yongtai County can be summarized as follows: ecological demand, ecological supply, rationality of land distribution, science and technology, population and per capita income. Some policy suggestions are put forward which are in line with the sustainable development of Yongtai County, including: protecting the original land, improving the land utilization ratio, developing science and technology, improving the efficiency of energy use, improving the quality of the population, carrying out the education of ecological environment, optimizing the industrial structure, To change the economic development model.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127

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