基于习惯形成理论的面板ELES模型拓展研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 13:15

本文选题：内、外部习惯形成　切入点：Hamilton系统　出处：《浙江工商大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文基于习惯形成理论中效用取决于有效消费(需求)的思想,对传统消费结构ELES模型进行拓展,构建出符合当前国内形势的动态消费结构模型,部分解释了传统ELES模型基本支出变动的原因。在已建立的理论模型基础上,结合中国二元经济特征,分别以城镇、农村的不同收入等级居民为研究对象,利用系统广义矩估计方法对两类居民的消费结构习惯特征进行了较为系统的研究,结论有：第一,除其他商品或服务的7类资料消费方面,城乡居民共同表现为显著的内部习惯形成特征。其中以食品、衣着类消费表现的最为强烈；交通通信、家庭设备用品及服务、医疗保健及教育娱乐文化服务等内部习惯影响紧跟其后,处于中等水平,但相对于城镇居民,农村居民过去消费带动作用强度有了明显下降；而居住类消费,城镇居民的内部习惯形成效应很弱,相反农村居民却表现的很强。对于其他商品或服务资料,城镇居民当前消费也确实受到过去消费模式的影响,而农村居民因购买力低下却未能充分享受这种奢侈资料,不存在惯性消费现象。第二,与收入相对较高居民互动方面,不同收入等级城乡居民食品消费统计意义上都不存在攀比性,而医疗保健及交通通讯外部习惯形成参数均正向显著,表明城乡低收入等级居民对医疗保健及交通通讯的消费,越来越倾向于和高收入等级居民比较,具有追求高层次消费品的意愿和倾向；除以上3类商品或服务外,城乡居民外部示范作用不同,农村居民对衣着、教育娱乐文化服务项的消费要受到高收入等级居民的示范影响,而城镇居民内部却不存在这种示范性；城镇居民对居住、家庭设备及服务和其他商品或服务的消费内部攀比作用明显,而农村居民内部并不存在攀比特性。第三,本文选取研究层以外的所有群体、研究层上一等级群体和研究层以上所有群体作为3种不同城镇居民组合作为示范群体,分别探究其发挥的内部示范性,比较发现消费者总是与收入较高人群做攀比,高于研究对象收入等级的所有城镇居民都会对其消费行为起到示范作用。第四,通过调整理论模型参数量化了中国城镇化进程中不同收入等级农村居民与城镇居民的攀比程度,结果表明除食品和居住外其他消费资料都不同程度的呈现出城乡之间的示范性,其中以医疗保健、交通通讯及教育娱乐文化正向示范效应最突出,其他商品或服务则表现为负向示范作用,而且随着农村收入等级提高,与城镇居民消费攀比倾向越明显。
[Abstract]:Based on the idea that utility depends on effective consumption (demand) in habit formation theory, this paper extends the traditional ELES model of consumption structure and constructs a dynamic consumption structure model which conforms to the current domestic situation. This part explains the reason of the change of basic expenditure in the traditional ELES model. Based on the established theoretical model and the dual economic characteristics of China, this paper takes the residents of different income levels in urban and rural areas as the research objects, respectively. The characteristics of consumption structure habits of two categories of residents are studied systematically by using the method of system generalized moment estimation. The conclusions are as follows:. First, in terms of consumption of seven categories of information, among other goods or services, urban and rural residents share significant characteristics of internal habit formation. The consumption of food and clothing is the most intense; transportation and communications, household equipment and services, The influence of internal habits, such as medical care, education, entertainment and cultural services, followed closely, at a moderate level, but compared with urban residents, the intensity of driving effect of rural residents' consumption in the past had obviously declined; while residential consumption, Urban residents' internal habit formation effect is very weak, on the contrary, rural residents are very strong. For other goods or services, urban residents' current consumption is indeed affected by past consumption patterns. Rural residents because of low purchasing power but can not fully enjoy this luxury information, there is no phenomenon of inertia consumption. Second, in terms of interaction with residents with relatively high income, there is no comparison in the statistical significance of food consumption among urban and rural residents with different income levels, while the parameters of external habit formation in health care and transportation and communication are all positive. It shows that the consumption of health care and transportation and communication by the low-income residents in urban and rural areas is more and more inclined to pursue the high-level consumer goods as compared with those of the high-income class residents; in addition to the three categories of goods or services mentioned above, The external demonstration role of urban and rural residents is different. The consumption of clothing, education, entertainment and cultural services by rural residents is affected by the demonstration of high-income class residents, but there is no such demonstration within urban residents. The domestic equipment and service and other goods or services have obvious internal comparison function, but the rural residents do not have the comparison characteristic. Third, this paper selects all the groups outside the research layer, and all the groups above the research level and above the research level as three different combinations of urban residents as demonstration groups, respectively, to explore the internal demonstration of their play. It is found that consumers are always compared with the higher income groups, and all the urban residents who are higher than the income level of the subjects will play a role in demonstrating their consumption behavior. In 4th, by adjusting the parameters of the theoretical model, this paper quantifies the degree of comparison between rural residents and urban residents in the process of urbanization in China. The results showed that, except for food and housing, other consumption data showed different levels of demonstration between urban and rural areas, among which the positive demonstration effect of health care, transportation, communication and education, entertainment and culture was the most prominent. Other goods or services show negative demonstration, and with the increase of rural income, the tendency to compare with the consumption of urban residents is more obvious.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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