进出口贸易与我国经济增长关系的统计分析

发布时间：2018-03-19 12:42

本文选题：国内生产总值　切入点：线性回归　出处：《曲阜师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2007年以来，由美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机的不断蔓延和深化，致使世界经济呈现出明显的下滑趋势，对中国进出口问题的影响也日益明显。发现中国进出口贸易中存在的问题，并根据这些问题，提出相对应的政策措施是一个值得研究的课题。本文利用SPSS19.0软件对中国1990-2011年的进口、出口、净出口额和国内生产总值（GDP）做了一元线性回归分析，发现国内生产总值与进口、出口额，即进出口总额之间的相关性较强；然后又用到计量经济学的方法，利用eviews6.0软件对GDP与进出口总额两时间序列做单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验及脉冲函数分析、方差分解分析，得到结论：进出口总额是GDP的Granger原因，而GDP不是进出口贸易的Granger原因；接着又利用SPSS19.0统计软件作图功能对我国2011及2010年的对外贸易商品分类金额做了简单箱图和堆栈面积图，，比较直观的分析了我国当前的产业结构。最后对发展我国进出口贸易和经济增长提出建议及对策。
[Abstract]:Since 2007, the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has spread and deepened, resulting in a marked downward trend in the world economy. The influence on China's import and export problems is becoming more and more obvious. It is worth studying to find out the problems existing in China's import and export trade and to put forward corresponding policies and measures according to these problems. This paper makes a linear regression analysis of China's imports, exports, net exports and gross domestic product (GDP) from 1990 to 2011 by using SPSS19.0 software. It is found that there is a strong correlation between GDP and imports and exports, that is, the total volume of imports and exports. Then the econometric method is used to do unit root test, cointegration test, pulse function analysis and variance decomposition analysis for GDP and total import and export time series by using eviews6.0 software. It is concluded that the total amount of import and export is the Granger cause of GDP, but GDP is not the Granger cause of import and export trade, and then the simple box diagram and stack area diagram of the amount of foreign trade commodity classification amount of China in 2011 and 2010 are made by using the function of SPSS19.0 statistical software. This paper analyzes the current industrial structure of our country intuitively, and finally puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for the development of China's import and export trade and economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;F124.1

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