“一带一路”产油国经济增长与石油生产和贸易的动态关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 02:37

本文选题：“一带一路”　切入点：石油生产　出处：《资源科学》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着国家"一带一路"战略的推进,中国与沿线国家的贸易往来日益紧密,石油资源作为重要的战略能源在区域合作中尤为重要。基于互惠互利原则,本文对沿线产油国的经济增长与石油生产和石油贸易的关系进行了定量分析,目的是揭示各国经济增长与石油供需之间的作用机理,寻求兼顾中国与沿线各国石油资源贸易的合作策略。本研究整理了2000-2015年"一带一路"沿线产油国的经济增长、石油产量和石油贸易量数据,运用格兰杰因果检验法、VAR模型和脉冲响应分析,对"一带一路"沿线21个产油国的经济增长、石油生产、石油贸易三者间的动态趋同关系进行评估。结果表明,三个变量间的动态关系存在三种明显不同的模式,即循环因果关系(三种变量之间存在显著的接替性循环变化)、互为因果关系(两种变量之间存在一种或两种显著的双向交替变化)和单向因果关系(两种变量之间仅存在一种显著的先后变化)。结合中国国情和模型检验结果,本文提出了差异化的中国石油贸易合作策略,即:采用石油贸易合作,人才、技术资源输出等方式,推动中国与"一带一路"沿线产油国的石油资源贸易;重点加强中国-中亚-西亚经济带和新亚欧经济带的建设,并制定优先合作策略,有利于缓解中国石油供给安全压力,确保"一带一路"倡议的顺利实施。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of China's "Belt and Road" strategy, China's trade relations with countries along the route have become increasingly close. Oil resources, as an important strategic energy source, are particularly important in regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit, This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between economic growth, oil production and oil trade in oil-producing countries along the route. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the mechanism between economic growth and oil supply and demand in various countries. This study collates the data of economic growth, oil production and oil trade volume of oil producing countries along Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015. By using Granger causality test method and impulse response analysis, the dynamic convergence relationship among 21 oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road", including economic growth, oil production and oil trade, is evaluated. There are three distinct patterns of dynamic relationships between the three variables. That is, cyclic causality (there are significant successive cyclic changes between the three variables, mutual causality (there is one or two significant bidirectional alternation between the two variables) and unidirectional causality (between the two variables). There is only one significant sequence of changes. Combined with China's national conditions and the results of model testing, This paper puts forward the differential strategy of China's petroleum trade cooperation, that is, to promote the oil resource trade between China and the oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road" by means of petroleum trade cooperation, talent and technical resource export. Strengthening the construction of China-Central Asia West Asia economic belt and the new Asia-Europe economic belt and formulating the priority cooperation strategy will help to alleviate the pressure on China's oil supply security and ensure the smooth implementation of Belt and Road's initiative.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：科技部国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项(2016YFA0602802) 国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006)
【分类号】：F113;F416.22;F742

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