宏观经济不确定性影响财政支出风险的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 13:11

本文选题：财政支出风险　切入点：宏观经济不确定性　出处：《中国财政科学研究院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：十八届三中全会明确指出,“财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。”加强财政风险管理、维护财政运行稳定,是实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的客观要求。在经济下行的新常态背景下,长期积累的结构性矛盾开始浮出水面,各种不确定性因素叠加,使财政也面临着收支缺口拉大、财政赤字上升、债务规模扩容等“风险新常态”。特别是支出一端,既要承担经济发展与公共服务需求加大的刚性增长压力,又要遭受宏观经济不确定性带来的随机冲击,还要面对决策失误、管理不善等内生性制度缺陷,风险发散的态势更加严重。因此,研究财政支出风险的传导路径,找出财政支出风险扩散的具体原因,构建支出风险预警模型具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文在前人研究的基础上,主要运用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,重点对宏观经济不确定性对财政支出风险的影响进行研究。所谓财政支出风险,是指财政支出无法实现或是支出无法控制的可能性。至于宏观经济不确定性,主要从宏观经济变量相互作用、相互影响、相互决定的角度来分析其对财政支出风险的影响。围绕上述两个核心概念,本文首先以基础分析为起点,辨析了相关定义与理论,论证了外生与内生两条不确定性影响财政支出风险的路径,前者主要是指“自动稳定器”和“相机抉择”两种作用机制下,宏观经济不确定性对财政支出风险的外生冲击;后者主要是指预期不确定和信息不完全的条件下,财政支出与其他宏观经济变量的相互影响过程中产生的财政支出风险。在此基础上,分析了当前我国财政支出面临的主要风险、宏观经济中的典型不确定性因素以及宏观经济不确定性影响财政支出风险的实际状态。在计量方面,相应地选取财政支出的财政收入弹性、政策不确定性、失业人数、民间固定资产投资、净出口5个变量建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数重点分析变量之间的动态变化关系,结果表明:财政支出的财政收入弹性所反映的财政支出风险具有较大的不确定性,政策和失业不确定性的增加会加大财政支出风险,民间固定资产投资和净出口的提高有助于降低财政支出风险;宏观经济不确定性对财政支出风险的冲击具有持续性。根据实证分析结果,得出结论:设计财政支出风险预警指标体系时要考虑宏观经济不确定性的影响;财政支出活动应该更加审慎,避免低效的财政支出构成风险冲击;鼓励和引导私人投资,减少财政支出拉动经济的需求。最后,利用实证分析结果,将VAR模型与风险计量模型相结合,构建财政支出风险的动态预警指标体系,通过VAR模型进行外推预测模拟,将预测值代入风险预警模型,监测宏观经济不确定条件下财政支出风险的变化情况。
[Abstract]:The third Plenary session of the 18 CPC Central Committee clearly pointed out that "Finance is the foundation and important pillar of state governance." It is an objective requirement to realize the modernization of the national governance system and governance capability. Under the new normal background of the economic downturn, the long-accumulated structural contradictions are beginning to surface, and all kinds of uncertainties are superimposed. The fiscal sector is also facing a "new normal risk", such as widening the gap in revenue and expenditure, increasing the fiscal deficit, and expanding the size of the debt. In particular, the spending side has to bear the pressure of rigid growth of economic development and increased demand for public services. In addition, it will suffer from the random impact brought by the macroeconomic uncertainty, face the defects of endogenous system, such as wrong decision making and poor management, and the situation of risk divergence is more serious. Therefore, the transmission path of fiscal expenditure risk is studied. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to find out the specific reasons for the diffusion of fiscal expenditure risk and to build a warning model of expenditure risk. Based on the previous studies, this paper mainly uses the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. Focus on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on fiscal expenditure risk. The so-called fiscal expenditure risk refers to the possibility that fiscal expenditure cannot be realized or expenditure cannot be controlled. As for macroeconomic uncertainty, This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables on the risk of fiscal expenditure from the angle of interaction, interaction and mutual determination of macroeconomic variables. Around the above two core concepts, this paper starts with the basic analysis and analyzes the relevant definitions and theories. This paper demonstrates the path of exogenous and endogenous uncertainty affecting financial expenditure risk. The former mainly refers to the exogenous impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on fiscal expenditure risk under the two action mechanisms of "automatic stabilizer" and "camera choice". The latter mainly refers to the fiscal expenditure risk arising from the interaction between fiscal expenditure and other macroeconomic variables under the conditions of uncertain expectations and incomplete information. This paper analyzes the main risks facing the fiscal expenditure in China, the typical uncertainty factors in the macro economy and the actual state of the financial expenditure risk affected by the macroeconomic uncertainty. Five variables of fiscal expenditure elasticity, policy uncertainty, unemployment, private fixed asset investment and net export are selected to establish VAR model. The dynamic relationship between variables is analyzed by impulse response function. The results show that the risk of fiscal expenditure reflected by the fiscal revenue elasticity of fiscal expenditure is uncertain, and the increase of policy and unemployment uncertainty will increase the risk of fiscal expenditure. The increase of private fixed asset investment and net export can reduce the risk of fiscal expenditure, and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the risk of fiscal expenditure is sustainable. It is concluded that the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty should be taken into account in the design of fiscal expenditure risk early warning indicator system; fiscal expenditure activities should be more prudent to avoid the risk impact caused by inefficient fiscal expenditure; and private investment should be encouraged and guided. Finally, combining the VAR model with the risk measurement model, the dynamic early-warning index system of the fiscal expenditure risk is constructed, and the extrapolation prediction simulation is carried out through the VAR model. The forecast value is put into the risk early warning model to monitor the change of fiscal expenditure risk under the condition of macroeconomic uncertainty.
【学位授予单位】：中国财政科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45;F124

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