山东省能源消耗、碳排放与经济增长关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 14:18

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：经济增长　出处：《青岛大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：山东省是中国的东部地区中的经济大省,也是能源消费大省,经济增长速度和GDP一直位列全国前列。随着经济的高速增长,高能耗的工业的发展和城市化过程中生活行为,对能源的需求大幅度增加。需要重新研究和认识经济增长、能源消耗以及碳排放之间的关系,在保证经济增长的同时,减少能源消耗,减少温室气体排放,为更好的利用资源,发展经济,保护环境奠定基础。论文首先对国内外对经济增长、能源消耗以及碳排放研究进行了综述；利用历年统计数据,分析山东省产值增长、产业结构,能源消耗量、能源消耗结构以及碳排放现状,发现山东省产业结构状况和能源消耗结构不合理,节能减排压力很大；对山东省能源消耗与经济增长之间关系进行研究,利用EVIEWS6.0对其进行协整检验,得出能源消耗与经济增长存在单线格兰杰因果关系；利用脱钩分析法对碳排放与经济增长之间关系进行研究,发现碳排放与经济并没有出现强脱钩状态；并利用库茨涅茨曲线对能源和碳排放趋势进行预测,得到能耗和碳排放在未来会出现拐点。论文为山东省相关部门把握能源消耗、碳排放与经济增长的辩证关系提供依据,有利于山东政府和相关部门制定更加合理的能源发展和管理政策,制定和综合运用财政政策、产业政策等促进经济结构调整、新能源的开发和快速发展,为山东省在实现“十二五”计划目标提供理论支持,并对其他省份经济的健康运行具有借鉴参考价值。
[Abstract]:Shandong Province is one of the largest economic and energy consuming provinces in eastern China. The economic growth rate and GDP have always been among the highest in the country. With the rapid economic growth, the development of high-energy consumption industries and the living behavior in the process of urbanization, There is a significant increase in the demand for energy. There is a need to re-examine and understand the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions, while at the same time reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in order to make better use of resources, Developing the economy and protecting the environment lay the foundation. Firstly, this paper summarizes the research on economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission at home and abroad, and analyzes the growth of output value, industrial structure, energy consumption, energy consumption structure and carbon emission status of Shandong Province by using statistical data over the years. It is found that the industrial structure and energy consumption structure of Shandong Province are unreasonable, and the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction is very high, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Shandong Province is studied, and cointegration test is carried out by using EVIEWS6.0. It is concluded that there is a single Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth, and the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is studied by decoupling analysis, and it is found that there is no strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economy. The trend of energy and carbon emission is predicted by Kuznets curve, and the inflection point of energy consumption and carbon emission will appear in the future. The paper provides the basis for the relevant departments of Shandong Province to grasp the dialectical relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, which is conducive to the Shandong government and relevant departments to formulate more reasonable energy development and management policies, formulate and comprehensive use of fiscal policies. Industrial policies promote the adjustment of economic structure, the development and rapid development of new energy, which provide theoretical support for the realization of the "12th Five-Year Plan" in Shandong Province, and have reference value for the healthy operation of other provinces' economy.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F205;F124.1

【参考文献】