长三角地区人口密度模型及增长模式:1982～2010

发布时间：2018-03-22 15:59

本文选题：区域人口密度模型　切入点：对数模型　出处：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于熵值法对上海、南京和杭州影响力进行综合评价,运用Arc GIS点距离工具测算各空间单元到沪宁杭的距离,然后借鉴重力模型,将长三角地区划分为以上海、南京和杭州为中心的3个城市经济区,并进行区域人口密度模型拟合。相比线性、指数和乘幂模型,对数模型能更好地拟合经济区内各县、县级市或市辖区人口密度与其到各自经济区中心距离的关系。而相比上述基础模型,基于基础模型的二次模型拟合的判定系数更高,拟合效果更好。其中,对数二次模型拟合的判定系数最高,且明显优于基础模型。基于对数二次模型的人口密度变动的空间差异,沪、宁、杭经济区增长模式可以总结为"强向心集聚"和"近域扩散",但不同区域不同时段增长模式存在差异。
[Abstract]:Based on the entropy method, the influence of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou is comprehensively evaluated, and the distance between each space unit and Shanghai-Nanjing is calculated by using the Arc GIS point distance tool, and then the Yangtze River Delta region is divided into Shanghai based on gravity model. Compared with the linear, exponential and power models, the logarithmic model can better fit the counties in the economic zone. The relationship between population density and the distance between population density and the center of their respective economic zones. Compared with the above basic model, the quadratic model based on the basic model has higher judgment coefficient and better fitting effect. The logarithmic quadratic model has the highest judging coefficient and is obviously superior to the basic model. The spatial difference of population density change based on logarithmic quadratic model, Shanghai, Nanjing, The growth pattern of Hangzhou Economic Zone can be summed up as "strong concentric agglomeration" and "near-regional diffusion", but there are differences between different regions and different periods of time.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院;西安外国语大学旅游学院·人文地理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(41601158)~~
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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