我国的人口红利与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 00:28

本文选题：人口红利　切入点：经济增长　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：二战后,以日本和亚洲“四小龙”为代表的东亚地区,其人口结构从高出生率、高死亡率和低自然增长率向低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增长率的迅速转变阶段,从而形成了有利于经济增长的一段时期被称为“人口红利窗口”。现有对“东亚奇迹”的研究成果表明,充分利用了人口结构转变带来的有利时机是东亚经济增长出现奇迹的重要原因之一。因此,人口因素和经济增长的关系逐渐被重视起来。同样地,在我国人口转变过程中,经济社会进入了人口红利期,即劳动年龄人口比重大,抚养负担较轻的黄金时期,也在一定程度上影响我国的经济增长。然而,随着我国老龄化的加速、人口红利的渐渐消失,这种变动必然通过影响一系列中介变量最终传递到经济增长上来,既包括经济方面的影响,也包括社会方面的影响；既包括宏观层面的储蓄、消费、投资等的影响,也包括微观层面的家庭结构变化、子女抚养、老年赡养等的影响。因此,深入探讨人口红利变动引起的经济效应对即将发生重大转折背景下的中国经济增长具有重要政策含义,这就是本文的出发点和目的所在。本文首先介绍我国的人口红利定义、特征、实现条件以及如何刻画；其次进行人口红利测度,讲述了我国人口红利现状,进而将人口红利从不同角度来比较；接下来分析了人口红利作用于经济增长的内在机制,运用数理推导简单的得出了人口红利对经济增长贡献率,进而用1978-2012年的数据来实证分析了人口红利对经济增长的影响,得出的结论是总抚养比变动1个单位,会导致经济增长率反向变动0.1756个单位,总抚养比的下降会促进经济的增长；后面讨论了人口红利、储蓄率、经济增长三者之间长期协整关系,建立了误差修正模型；随后,利用联合国数据对我国人口红利预测,分析了人口红利变动对经济持续增长的影响：最后提出一些政策建议,对于如何充分利用“后人口红利”和人口红利消减的替代做了讨论。
[Abstract]:After World War II, the population structure of East Asia, represented by Japan and the four Little Dragons of Asia, changed rapidly from a high birth rate, a high mortality rate and a low natural growth rate to a low birth rate, a low mortality rate and a low natural growth rate. As a result, a period conducive to economic growth was called the "demographic dividend window." existing research on the "East Asian Miracle" shows that. Taking full advantage of the favorable opportunity brought by the demographic change is one of the important reasons for the miracle of economic growth in East Asia. Therefore, the relationship between population factors and economic growth has gradually been attached importance. Similarly, in the process of population transformation in China, The economic society has entered the period of population dividend, that is, the golden period when the proportion of working-age population is large and the burden of raising is light, which also affects the economic growth of our country to a certain extent. However, with the acceleration of the aging of our country, the population dividend gradually disappears. This change is bound to be transmitted to economic growth by influencing a series of intermediate variables, including both economic and social impacts, as well as macro-level savings, consumption, investment, and so on. It also includes the influence of changes in family structure, child support, old age support and so on at the micro level. Therefore, it has important policy implications for China's economic growth in the context of the imminent major turning point to explore in depth the economic effects caused by the demographic dividend changes. This is the starting point and purpose of this paper. Firstly, this paper introduces the definition, characteristics, realization conditions and how to depict the population dividend in China; secondly, it measures the population dividend, and describes the current situation of population dividend in China. Then it compares the demographic dividend from different angles. Then it analyzes the internal mechanism of the effect of demographic dividend on economic growth, and obtains the contribution rate of demographic dividend to economic growth by mathematical deduction. Then the paper empirically analyzes the effect of demographic dividend on economic growth by using the data from 1978 to 2012. The conclusion is that the change of total dependency ratio by one unit will lead to the reverse change of economic growth rate by 0.1756 units, and the decrease of total dependency ratio will promote economic growth. The long-term cointegration relationship among demographic dividend, savings rate and economic growth is discussed, and an error correction model is established. Then, the United Nations data is used to predict the demographic dividend in China. This paper analyzes the effect of the change of population dividend on the sustained economic growth, and finally puts forward some policy suggestions, and discusses how to make full use of the "post-demographic dividend" and the substitution of population dividend reduction.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.1

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