东北地区居民消费结构升级对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 21:09

本文选题：东北地区　切入点：经济增长　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年东北地区的经济增长明显处于落后状态,全国经济总量排名倒数,形势严峻,不容忽视。当前我国已经进入消费结构加快升级重要阶段,通过消费结构升级推动产业升级和投资的良性互动,能否对东北地区经济增长产生积极影响从而改变当前经济萎靡的现状值得深入探索。论文从理论上分析产品、产业和投资结构传导下的消费结构升级,从而对东北地区经济增长产生影响,就东北居民消费结构升级对经济增长影响进行定性分析,通过建立面板数据分析模型,对东北地区居民消费结构升级影响经济增长的过程进行模型估计并进行总结。东北地区的消费需求随着时间的推移以及生活水平的改善,居民的心理需求发生变化,社会经济的发展已经逐渐从生存型消费转向享受型消费。从2011年开始,东北地区第二产业对经济增长的贡献逐渐减少,第三产业发展推动东北地区经济增长,消费结构升级拓宽第三产业的发展潜力,有助于第三产业推动经济快速增长。投资结构变动带动经济增长,其中投资结构的变动与消费结构相呼应,消费结构不断变化的同时投资结构的调整也会随着变化,进而对经济增长产生一定影响。论文采用面板数据回归方法,分析居民消费结构升级对东北地区经济增长的影响,研究发现:东北居民消费结构升级的方式具有多样性,产品的更新换代以及产业结构和投资结构等都会受到消费结构影响,进而对经济增长产生一定影响。将工业消费品数量比上农业消费品为指标研究居民消费结构升级,居民的消费结构升级对第一产业经济增长的影响是非相关的,对第二产业及第三产业经济增长有影响且是正相关的;将服务业消费品和工业消费品的比值为指标来研究居民消费结构升级,居民的消费结构升级对第一产业经济增长的影响是负相关的,居民消费结构升级对第二产业及第三产业经济增长的影响并不显著,没有明显的相关性。最后,就促进东北地区消费结构升级、重点挖掘农村消费潜力以及东北地区服务业的发展等方面提出对策和措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economic growth in Northeast China has obviously been in a backward state. The countdown of the national total economic volume is serious and can not be ignored. At present, China has entered an important stage of speeding up the upgrading of the consumption structure. Whether the promotion of industrial upgrading and investment through the upgrading of consumption structure can have a positive impact on the economic growth in Northeast China and thus change the current situation of economic malaise is worth further exploring. The upgrading of consumption structure under the conduction of industry and investment structure has an impact on the economic growth in Northeast China. The qualitative analysis of the impact of the upgrading of consumption structure on economic growth is carried out, and the panel data analysis model is established. This paper estimates and summarizes the process of consumption structure upgrading and influencing economic growth in Northeast China. With the passage of time and the improvement of living standards, the psychological needs of residents in Northeast China change. The development of social economy has gradually shifted from subsistence consumption to enjoyment consumption. Since 2011, the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth in Northeast China has gradually decreased, and the development of the tertiary industry has promoted economic growth in Northeast China. The upgrading of the consumption structure and widening of the development potential of the tertiary industry will help the tertiary industry to promote rapid economic growth, and the change in investment structure will lead to economic growth, in which the changes in the investment structure will be consistent with the consumption structure. While the consumption structure is changing, the adjustment of the investment structure will also change with the change, which will have a certain impact on the economic growth. The paper uses panel data regression method to analyze the impact of the upgrading of the consumption structure on the economic growth in Northeast China. It is found that the ways of consumption structure upgrading in Northeast China are diverse, and the upgrading of products as well as the industrial structure and investment structure will be affected by the consumption structure. Then it has a certain impact on economic growth. Comparing the quantity of industrial consumer goods to agricultural consumer goods as an indicator, this paper studies the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents, and the impact of the upgrading of consumption structure on the economic growth of the primary industry is irrelevant. It has an impact on the economic growth of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry and is positively related. The ratio of consumer goods in the service industry to the consumer goods in industry is taken as an indicator to study the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents. The impact of residential consumption structure upgrading on the economic growth of the primary industry is negatively correlated. The impact of residential consumption structure upgrading on the economic growth of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry is not significant. Finally, there is no obvious correlation between the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents and the economic growth of the secondary and tertiary industries. This paper puts forward some countermeasures and measures to promote the upgrading of consumption structure in Northeast China, especially to tap the potential of rural consumption and the development of service industry in Northeast China.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1;F127

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