陕西省银行业发展与经济增长关系的理论和实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 04:10

本文选题：银行业发展　切入点：经济增长　出处：《西安科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自金融发展理论诞生以来，经济学家就金融与经济增长之间的关系进行了卓有成效的研究，然而，由于各国和各地区经济金融发展情况的不同，学者关于两者之间相互关系的研究结论存在较大分歧；我国是以银行为主的间接金融占主导地位的国家，将该方面的研究具体到省份层面，研究银行业与地区经济增长之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。在本文中，，将以陕西省为研究对象，采用理论和实证相结合的方法，在介绍国内外关于经济增长、金融发展的理论的基础上，介绍银行业发展与经济增长之间关系的相关研究现状，而后，应用描述性统计分析的方法分析陕西省经济和银行业1990-2012年间的发展情况和相互关系，并做理论分析；最后，构建含有银行业影响因素的C-D生产函数模型，借助ADF和PP检验、协整检验等计量经济学方法对陕西省经济增长做实证分析，主要研究结论如下：（1）陕西省经济总量提高但是发展水平层次较低；一产占比下降、二产占比先降后增、三产绝对量逐年增加，产业结构日趋合理，但是产业内部结构亟需完善；消费和净出口对经济增长的贡献率较低，投资极大的促进了陕西经济的增长。（2）陕西省银行业规模增大，银行业的集中度有所降低，但是存在信贷过度集中现象，在银行业信贷充足的情况下对中小企业和非公企业支持不够。银行业动员资金的能力较强，储蓄向投资的转化效率较低，银行业集中度与经济增长总体上呈现反方向变化。（3）通过实证可以知道：银行业发展规模、劳动力发展水平、资本投入水平对经济增长有正向作用，银行业发展效率对经济增长有负向的影响，银行业规模对经济增长的促进有滞后性，而经济增长对银行业规模的负向影响短期显著，银行业发展效率对经济增长的负向影响在当期就表现出来，经济增长对银行业发展效率促进作用仅在当期显著，劳动力发展水平对于经济增长的促进作用具有一定的滞后性，资本投入水平对于经济增长的正向带动作用在长期更为显著。
[Abstract]:Since the birth of the theory of financial development, economists have carried out fruitful research on the relationship between finance and economic growth. However, due to the differences of economic and financial development in different countries and regions, Scholars have different conclusions on the relationship between the two. China is a country dominated by indirect finance, which is dominated by banks. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between banking and regional economic growth. In this paper, we will take Shaanxi Province as the research object and adopt the method of combining theory and demonstration to introduce the economic growth at home and abroad. On the basis of the theory of financial development, this paper introduces the current research status of the relationship between banking development and economic growth, and then applies descriptive statistical analysis method to analyze the development and mutual relationship between Shaanxi economy and banking industry from 1990 to 2012. Finally, the C-D production function model with the influence factors of banking is constructed, and the econometrics methods such as ADF and PP test and cointegration test are used to analyze the economic growth of Shaanxi Province. The main conclusions are as follows:. 1) the total economic volume of Shaanxi Province is increased, but the level of development is low, the ratio of the first output to the second is decreased first, the ratio of the second output to the second is decreased first, the absolute quantity of the third output is increasing year by year, the industrial structure is becoming more and more reasonable, but the internal structure of the industry needs to be improved urgently. The contribution rate of consumption and net export to economic growth is low, and investment has greatly promoted the growth of Shaanxi economy. (2) the banking industry in Shaanxi Province has increased in size and the concentration of banking industry has decreased, but there is a phenomenon of excessive concentration of credit. When there is sufficient credit in the banking sector, there is insufficient support for small and medium-sized enterprises and non-public enterprises, and the banking industry has a strong ability to mobilize funds. The conversion efficiency from savings to investment is low, and banking concentration and economic growth generally change in the opposite direction. (3) We can know that the scale of banking development, the level of labor force development and the level of capital input have positive effects on economic growth, and the efficiency of banking development has a negative impact on economic growth. The scale of the banking industry has a lag in promoting economic growth, while the negative impact of economic growth on the scale of the banking industry is significant in the short term, and the negative impact of the development efficiency of the banking industry on the economic growth appears in the current period. The role of economic growth in promoting the efficiency of banking development is only significant in the current period, the level of labor force has a certain lag in promoting economic growth, and the positive driving effect of capital investment level on economic growth is more significant in the long run.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3;F124.1

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