吉林省财政支出与经济增长相关性分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 04:15

本文选题：吉林省财政支出　切入点：经济增长　出处：《吉林财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：财政支出作为衡量经济增长的重要因素之一，二者之间有着内在与外在的必然联系，对财政支出的研究主要从财政支出规模和财政支出结构两个方面入手，为促进经济的增长，必然要确定适宜的财政支出规模和合理的财政支出结构。改革开放以来，吉林省的经济发展有了明显的提高，具体体现在财政支出的总量和经济总量都有明显的增加并且呈现出迅速的增长趋势。为使财政支出能够更加有效的促进经济的增长，研究吉林省的财政支出与经济增长的相关性有利于推动吉林省的经济增长，同时对带动东北三省经济的共同增长都有着重要的意义。十一届全国人大四次会议召开以来，吉林省根据自身经济发展的特点，通过控制财政支出来更好地促进经济增长，因此，财政支出规模的相对数额与绝对数额以及财政支出结构都是我们应当具体分析的因素。就当前情况来看,2007年财政收支分类改革已经将地方财政支出中很多低效益或者零效益的支出进行缩减或是清除，并且进一步确定了财政支出结构更加合理的具体分类，但是，相当数额的财政支出仍远远超出财政预算，，甚至在预算中并没有体现，加之财政支出的绝对规模日益加大，造成地方政府财政紧张现象，而不得不通过发行地方政府债券的方法来解决日益增加的财政支出规模，面对地方政府高度的债务风险，我们不得不从深层次来研究财政支出规模和财政支出结构的效率问题，把握好促进经济增长的最适的财政支出规模和财政支出结构。本文通过研究吉林省财政支出与经济增长的相关性分析来促进吉林省当前的财政体制改革，控制好适宜的财政支出规模以及优化财政支出结构，这一分析对我国当前的财政体制改革也有着深刻的现实意义与实践意义。本文以改革开放后吉林省财政支出和经济增长的相关性为研究对象，结合十二五规划以及吉林省政府工作报告，对吉林省的财政支出规模与财政支出结构对经济增长的影响做了具体的理论分析和实证分析。具体从以下四个层面进行分析:首先，利用理论分析的方法，列举财政支出与经济增长的具体理论依据；其次，整理数据资料，对吉林省1978-2012年期间的财政支出状况和经济增长状况作出具体的分析；再次，利用计量经济学的Eviews软件，通过逐步回归计量建模方法，结合吉林省财政支出与经济增长的具体情况，建立吉林省财政支出与GDP模型，从虚拟变量、多重共线、最小二乘法（OLS）等多个角度进行模型检验，从而得出最佳模型。最后，通过对吉林省财政支出的状况分析和实证分析，提出吉林省财政支出存在的问题以及相关的解决对策。
[Abstract]:Fiscal expenditure is one of the important factors to measure economic growth. There is an inevitable relationship between them. The research on fiscal expenditure mainly starts from two aspects: the scale of fiscal expenditure and the structure of fiscal expenditure, in order to promote economic growth. It is necessary to determine the appropriate scale of fiscal expenditure and the reasonable structure of fiscal expenditure. Since the reform and opening up, the economic development of Jilin Province has improved markedly. It is embodied in the obvious increase in the total amount of financial expenditure and the total amount of the economy and the rapid growth trend. In order to make the fiscal expenditure more effective in promoting economic growth, The study of the correlation between fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Jilin Province is conducive to promoting economic growth in Jilin Province, and is also of great significance to the common economic growth of the three northeastern provinces. Since the fourth session of the Eleventh National people's Congress, According to the characteristics of its own economic development, Jilin Province can better promote economic growth by controlling fiscal expenditure. The relative amount and absolute amount of fiscal expenditure and the structure of fiscal expenditure are all factors that we should analyze concretely. As far as the present situation is concerned, the reform of fiscal revenue and expenditure classification in 2007 has made a lot of low efficiency in local fiscal expenditure. Or zero benefit spending to reduce or eliminate, And has further determined the financial expenditure structure more reasonable concrete classification, but, the considerable amount of financial expenditure still far exceeds the financial budget, even does not reflect in the budget, in addition to the fiscal expenditure absolute scale is increasing day by day, As a result of the local governments' financial strain, they have to solve the increasing scale of fiscal expenditure by issuing local government bonds, and face the high debt risk of local governments. We have to study the scale of fiscal expenditure and the efficiency of fiscal expenditure structure from a deep level. This paper studies the correlation between fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Jilin Province to promote the current fiscal system reform in Jilin Province. To control the appropriate scale of fiscal expenditure and optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, This analysis also has profound practical significance and practical significance to the current financial system reform of our country. This paper takes the correlation between fiscal expenditure and economic growth of Jilin Province after reform and opening up as the object of study. Combined with the 12th Five-Year Plan and the work report of Jilin Provincial Government, this paper makes a specific theoretical analysis and empirical analysis on the impact of the scale and structure of fiscal expenditure on economic growth in Jilin Province. Using the method of theoretical analysis, enumerate the specific theoretical basis of fiscal expenditure and economic growth; secondly, collate the data, and make a specific analysis of the fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Jilin Province during 1978-2012; thirdly, By using the Eviews software of econometrics, through the method of stepwise regression econometric modeling, combining with the concrete situation of Jilin Province's fiscal expenditure and economic growth, this paper establishes the Jilin Province's fiscal expenditure and GDP model, from the virtual variable, multiple collinear, The least square method is used to test the model from many angles, so as to get the best model. Finally, through the analysis and empirical analysis of the fiscal expenditure in Jilin Province, the problems existing in the fiscal expenditure of Jilin Province and the relevant countermeasures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;F127

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